Syndax Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SNDX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.56-0.58%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SNDX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -43.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 58.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 101.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SNDX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
and in Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 attached hereto is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any of the Company’s filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: More revenue would show the drug is doing well in the market.
Supportive ifNiktimvo net revenue exceeds $60 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNiktimvo net revenue falls below $55 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This report will provide insights into revenue and operating loss trends. It is a key upcoming event.
Watch forThe earnings report shows good trends in revenue and lower operating losses.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows bad trends in revenue or higher losses.
Why it matters: New data may strengthen Revuforj's market position. It may also help investors feel good.
Supportive ifNew data for Revuforj at medical meetings shows better results for patients.
Worry ifThe new data shows no big improvements. It does not raise safety worries.
Why it matters: Starting the RAVEN trial will signal progress in developing new treatments for AML.
Supportive ifThe RAVEN trial for revumenib will start in late 2026.
Worry ifThe trial start is delayed or canceled.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$187 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $484 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,256 loss on $10,000 · 32.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows good management and demand for products.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: This issuance aims to strengthen Syndax's financial position. It is a key capital allocation move.
Supportive ifConfirmation of the issuance in a press release or 8-K filing.
Worry ifFailure to complete the issuance as planned or delays in the process.
Why it matters: Lower losses show good cost management. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifOperating income improves further from -$34.2M in 2026-Q1.
Worry ifOperating income worsens or stays at -$34.2M or worse.
Why it matters: Topline data will show Niktimvo's potential in chronic GVHD. This will affect future sales.
Supportive ifTopline data from Phase 2 trials of Niktimvo expected in late 2026.
Worry ifTopline data does not show effectiveness. It is also delayed more than expected.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth supports the company's growth strategy. It is a key focus for management.
Supportive ifRevenue increases to over $70M in the next quarter.
Worry ifRevenue growth drops below $60M or declines.
Why it matters: Topline data will show how well axatilimab works in treating IPF and cGVHD. This could impact future sales and growth.
Supportive ifTopline data from the Phase 2 trial of axatilimab in IPF and cGVHD is reported as positive.
Worry ifTopline data from the trial shows disappointing results or delays in reporting.
Why it matters: Revuforj's revenue keeps growing. This shows strong demand and acceptance in the market. It is important for making more money in the future.
Supportive ifRevuforj net revenue grows year over year by more than 10% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRevuforj net revenue growth falls below 10% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Submitting the IND for SNDX-4321 is a key step. It helps enter the NSCLC market, which has big needs.
Supportive ifThe Company submits the IND application for SNDX-4321 by the end of 2026.
Worry ifThe IND submission for SNDX-4321 is delayed or not submitted by the end of 2026.