Senestech Inc (SNES)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.00-3.85%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SNES
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 54.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 61.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SNES — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026 , we announced our financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 . A copy of our press release announcing these financial results and certain other information is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934…
Why it matters: A new product launch could drive additional revenue and strengthen market position.
Supportive ifA new product for pest management was announced in Q3.
Worry ifNo new product announcements or delays in planned launches in Q3.
Why it matters: High cash burn shows ongoing money problems and affects operations.
Worry ifOperating cash burn remains above $1.5 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifOperating cash burn decreases below $1.5 million in Q2.
Why it matters: A reduction in losses would show progress in improving financial health. This is crucial for long-term sustainability.
Supportive ifOperating income loss reported less than -$2.1 million in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income loss reported worse than -$2.1 million in Q2.
Why it matters: The redesign aims to make the customer experience better and help subscriptions grow.
Supportive ifThe website redesign launches on time and shows better conversion rates.
Worry ifRedesign is delayed or fails to improve conversion rates.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$217 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $745 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,058 loss on $10,000 · 80.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows progress to making money. It shows management is controlling costs well.
Supportive ifNet loss improves to below $1.5 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet loss increases to above $2 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: E-commerce growth is important for a steady income. Strong growth shows the strategy is working.
Supportive ifQ3 e-commerce revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 e-commerce revenue growth is below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is key for financial health. It shows good management of costs and income.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow improves to less negative than -$1.7 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flow worsens, landing more negative than -$1.7 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth goes up, it could mean a recovery for Senestech.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth shows a positive change, moving above 0% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains negative or worsens further.
Why it matters: High subscription growth means strong customer loyalty. It also shows steady revenue.
Supportive ifSubscription revenue exceeds $160,000 in Q3 2026, showing over 50% growth from Q3 2025.
Worry ifSubscription revenue is under $160,000 in Q3 2026. This shows weaker growth.
Why it matters: A drop in cash reserves may show money problems. This can affect how the company operates.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents remain above $5 million.
Less concerning ifCash and cash equivalents fall below $5 million.
Why it matters: Doubling subscribers shows high demand. This supports the income model and proves the e-commerce plan is working.
Supportive ifActive subscriber base doubles again in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifActive subscriber base growth is less than 50% compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: High gross margins show good pricing power and cost control. This helps on the way to making money.
Supportive ifGross margin stays above 70% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 65% in Q3 2026.