Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$4.63 → $4.66 · observed estimates
StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$56.83+0.94%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.63 → 4.66 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SNEX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain positive cash flow from operations above $2.8B | Cash flow improved sharply, from negative $1.26B to positive $2.8B, supporting growth. | Broken | cash flow from operations falls below zero next quarter | Cash from operations: $-1.337B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.8B. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 2026-1,336,700,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$4.63 → $4.66 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financial-services growth and acquisition-integration story, not a steady, low-risk compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is making progress on key priorities, while recent financial performance is weak relative to its industry cohort.
SNEX is cheap versus peers, but the expectations gap is notable, so the valuation signal does not remove the need for stronger execution. The evidence suggests fragility is low rather than broad-based, though earnings quality is fragile and the model has medium confidence.
Near term, revenue growth across Commercial, Institutional, and Payments, along with progress integrating R.J. O’Brien, supports the business setup. Cash flow remains inconsistent, recent performance is weak, and risk has risen to elevated; a past deep earnings miss is also a caution, despite recent reported earnings beats. The next guidance update and the rate environment are important near-term risks.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on sustaining segment growth, completing the acquisition integration, and turning reported progress into more consistent cash generation. A guidance cut or Fed rate cuts would weigh on the setup, while continued strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as MS, GS, and SCHW would support sector momentum.
SNEX combines peer-relative cheapness and operating growth with fragile earnings quality, uneven cash flow, and elevated risk. The multi-year view hinges on consistent execution and whether recent weakness improves. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Achieve EPS at or above $2.07 next quarter and $2.5 in Q4 2026 |
| Profit beats show good earnings power, with EPS at $2.07 beating estimates by 39%. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $2.07 in 2026-Q3 or below $2.5 in 2026-Q4 |
Diluted EPS: $1.00 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.07 for 2026-Q3 and >= $2.5 for 2026-Q4. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 20261 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete integration of R.J. O'Brien and realize synergies | O'Brien well, unlocking synergies. | Intact | integration progress stalls or reverses | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth above $45.7B in 2026-Q2 | A primary condition in StoneX Group Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $45.7B. | Broken | revenue falls below $39B in any quarter next year | Revenue: $40.193B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $45.7B. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 202640,193,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We continue to deliver double-digit growth in our Commercial, Institutional and Payments segments, reflecting the increasing value of the StoneX ecosystem to our expanding client base.” “Our sole strategic objective continues to be building out a unique ecosystem, offering extensive depth and breadth of products and geographical reach to our global client base.” Revenue was $45.761 billion in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.17B → $6.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $4.63 | $6,173,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.63 | $6,173,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.63 | $6,173,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.63 | $6,173,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.63 | $6,173,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.63 | $6,173,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.63 | $6,173,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.63 | $6,173,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.66 | $6,188,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 23, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.