StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$53.62-5.65%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SNEX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -81.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 59.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 20 industry peers
SNEX — dividend update
Dated 2026-02-04
Other Events On February 3, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors approved a three-for-two split of its common stock. The stock split will be effected as a stock dividend entitling each stockholder of record to receive one additional share of common stock for every two shares owned. Additional shares issued as a result of the stock dividend will be distributed after close of trading on March 20, 2026, to stockholders of record at the close of business on March 10, 2026. Cash will be distribu…
Why it matters: Cash from operations swung from negative $1.3 billion to positive $2.8 billion. Another weak quarter would show that cash flow remains uneven.
Worry ifThe next reported quarter shows cash from operations below zero.
Less concerning ifThe next reported quarter shows cash from operations above zero.
Why it matters: The board approved repurchases of up to 5.0 million shares from October 1, 2026, to September 30, 2027. Actual purchases will show whether the plan is used.
Supportive ifA company filing or report shows share repurchases in fiscal 2027 and gives the share count.
Worry ifA company report shows no shares repurchased by the end of fiscal 2027, or the plan is ended early.
Why it matters: These were StoneX’s largest growth engines in Q3. A sharp slowdown would weaken the case that growth spans its main businesses.
Worry ifQ4 Commercial or Institutional revenue falls from a year ago. In Q3, each grew: 97% and 40%, respectively.
Less concerning ifQ4 Commercial and Institutional revenue both grow year over year.
Why it matters: StoneX says the deal is on track and is starting to add value. Lower costs or higher profit would show that the deal is paying off.
Supportive ifIn the next report, management says the integration is mostly complete. It reports lower deal costs or more savings.
Worry ifManagement says integration is late, or reports no savings and higher deal costs.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$141 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $411 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,299 loss on $10,000 · 43.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Retail segment income fell 36% in Q3 and across the first nine months. A recovery would ease pressure from a weak part of the business.
Supportive ifQ4 Self-Directed/Retail segment income rises from a year ago. It fell 36% in Q3.
Worry ifQ4 Self-Directed/Retail segment income falls year over year again.