StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$69.46-0.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SNEX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -95.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 82.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SNEX — dividend update
Dated 2026-02-04
Other Events On February 3, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors approved a three-for-two split of its common stock. The stock split will be effected as a stock dividend entitling each stockholder of record to receive one additional share of common stock for every two shares owned. Additional shares issued as a result of the stock dividend will be distributed after close of trading on March 20, 2026, to stockholders of record at the close of business on March 10, 2026. Cash will be distribu…
Why it matters: Better cash flow supports growth and financial stability.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations rises a lot compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations decreases or remains stagnant.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact StoneX's performance and investor sentiment.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 12% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains at or above 12% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows better management of working capital. This is important for funding growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported above $3B for Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains below $3B for Q2.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows good health. It also shows the ability to support growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations was over $2 billion.
Worry ifCash flow from operations turns negative again.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$141 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $405 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,016 loss on $10,000 · 30.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The stock split could make shares easier to buy, affecting trading and feelings.
Watch forTrading volume goes up a lot after the stock split on July 20, 2026.
Also watch forTrading volume decreases or remains flat post-split.
Why it matters: Better operating income helps with long-term profits and cash flow.
Supportive ifOperating income shows a big increase from Q1 2026.
Worry ifOperating income falls or stays the same compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Falling below this level may show weaker profits and less efficiency.
Worry ifQ2 ROE reported at 25% or higher.
Less concerning ifQ2 ROE reported below 25%.
Why it matters: Growing net income shows the company's profit and how well it operates.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 exceeds $150 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 falls below $100 million.
Why it matters: Higher EPS shows strong profits and can increase investor trust.
Supportive ifQ3 diluted EPS exceeds $2.50 per share.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS falls below $2.00 per share.
Why it matters: A drop below this could mean lower profits even with revenue growth.
Worry ifQ2 net income reported above $170 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income reported below $160 million.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth below the median could signal a broader industry slowdown.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains above 15% over the next quarter.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is below its median. This hints at a slowdown.
Why it matters: Successful integration could enhance market position and drive revenue growth. This is key for future performance.
Supportive ifManagement says integration is on track. It will create benefits in upcoming earnings calls.
Worry ifManagement says there are delays in integration. They will talk about this in earnings calls.
Why it matters: Continued revenue growth shows the strength of StoneX's business model and client demand.
Supportive ifQ3 revenues increase year-over-year by more than 15% across all segments.
Worry ifQ3 revenues grow less than 15% year-over-year or decline.
Why it matters: A share buyback can signal management's confidence in the company's value and support stock price.
Supportive ifManagement says the share buyback program is starting as planned.
Worry ifManagement delays or cancels the share buyback program.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is important for funding growth. It also helps support operations.
Watch forCash from operations shows steady positive growth. There are no big changes.
Also watch forCash from operations is unstable or may turn negative again.