Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
SOLIGENIX INC (SNGX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$0.33-4.99%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SNGX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Raise at least $2.96 million via share offering | A supporting condition in SOLIGENIX INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.96 million. | Intact | capital raised falls short of $2.96 million by mid-2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making biotech situation rather than an established compounder. The thesis is marked intact, but the company has halted its HyBryte Phase 3 trial and is evaluating other strategic options.
The evidence labels SNGX cheap versus peers, while also showing a low-confidence valuation model and an expectations gap tilted against the company. The priced-in assessment is marked justified, with no fragility gates triggered, but it does not remove the risks tied to losses, financing, and listing compliance.
Near term, the next company update carries elevated execution risk, and a guidance cut is identified as a meaningful negative scenario. Management is raising capital amid net losses and negative operating cash flow, while addressing a Nasdaq minimum-bid-price notice. Over the multi-year view, progress depends on the company’s strategic options and other assets after the HyBryte trial ended for futility.
The main swing factors are resolution of the listing issue, access to capital, and whether management can advance alternatives to HyBryte. A weakening jobs trend is flagged as a risk to healthcare names, while stronger results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SNGX remains a fragile, high-risk thesis with sector support but serious company-specific funding, clinical, and compliance challenges. The evidence is mixed and confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Soligenix aims to fix Nasdaq listing issues. |
| Broken |
| share price falls below $1.00 for more than 30 days |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete termination of HyBryte development program | Ending the failed HyBryte program cuts losses. | Recovered | HyBryte program restarts or continues beyond mid-2026 | Program terminated (qualitative) DMC recommended halting Phase 3 FLASH2 trial for futility; company reported termination of the HyBryte development program. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in a supplied disclosure. Management reported: “Under the terms of the interim analysis, the study was recommended to halt for futility.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Achieve at least $90 million revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in SOLIGENIX INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $90 million. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $90 million in 2026 | Revenue: $0 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $90 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20260 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.25 → $-0.25 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.25 | $0 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.25 | $0 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.25 | $0 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.25 | $0 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.25 | $0 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.25 | $0 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.25 | $0 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.25 | $0 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.25 | $1,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.