Sonoco (SON)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$51.63+5.73%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SON
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SON — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 21, 2026, Sonoco Products Company (the "Company") issued a news release reporting its financial results for the quarter ended September 27, 2026. The Company also provided revised guidance for the full year 2026. A co py of that release is attached as an exhibit hereto.
Why it matters: Sonoco aims to save $150–$200 million over three years. Q3 adjusted profit fell 13.1% despite cost cuts and savings.
Supportive ifSonoco reports recurring savings on track for its $150–$200 million goal. Adjusted operating profit rises from a year ago.
Worry ifSonoco reports savings below its stated pace. Adjusted operating profit falls from a year ago again.
Why it matters: Industrial sales rose 5.2% in Q3, but segment profit fell 6.2%. Higher costs outweighed price gains and savings.
Supportive ifIndustrial segment operating profit grows year over year, after its 6.2% Q3 drop.
Worry ifIndustrial segment operating profit falls from a year ago again. Costs rise faster than prices and savings.
Why it matters: Sonoco cut its EPS goal from $5.80–$6.20 to $5.30–$5.50. A result below the new low end would show more pressure.
Worry ifSonoco reports 2026 adjusted EPS below $5.30, or cuts its $5.30–$5.50 goal again.
Less concerning ifSonoco reports 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $5.30 and keeps its current goal.
Why it matters: Stronger URB sales helped keep mill use high in Q3. A slowdown could weaken this bright spot in Industrial Packaging.
Worry ifNorth America URB trade ton sales grow at least 10% year over year in a reported quarter.
Less concerning ifNorth America URB trade ton sales fall year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$90 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $277 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,117 loss on $10,000 · 21.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Sonoco lowered its cash flow goal to $600–$650 million. Meeting it would support its debt reduction and cash plans.
Supportive if2026 operating cash flow reaches at least $600 million, within the revised $600–$650 million range.
Worry if2026 operating cash flow falls below $600 million.