Sonoco (SON)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$51.95-1.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SON
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
SON — CFO transition
Dated 2026-05-11
Chief Accounting Officer — Aditya Gandhi: Mr. Gandhi resigned from his position as Chief Accounting Officer.
Why it matters: Consumer Packaging is crucial for Sonoco. Growth here indicates market strength and pricing power.
Supportive ifConsumer Packaging segment net sales grow by more than 2.9% in the next quarter.
Worry ifConsumer Packaging segment net sales decline or grow less than 2.9%.
Why it matters: Confirming the $1.25 billion to $1.35 billion range shows Sonoco can manage costs and demand.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 is confirmed within the range of $1.25 billion to $1.35 billion.
Worry ifIf adjusted EBITDA falls below $1.25 billion, it shows deeper issues with costs or demand.
Why it matters: Updates may show progress in reaching cost savings and better profit margins.
Supportive ifManagement reports achieving at least $32 million in annual savings from the plan.
Worry ifManagement reports setbacks or lower savings from the profit plan.
Why it matters: Revenue has declined slightly in recent quarters. Stabilizing revenue is key for future growth and investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue did not drop compared to last year. This shows stability.
Worry ifQ3 revenue drops again compared to last year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$120 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $264 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,925 loss on $10,000 · 19.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue for materials may show a recovery for Sonoco.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for over a year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains negative or worsens.
Why it matters: Inflation raises the costs of materials and shipping. Higher costs can hurt profits.
Worry ifOperating profit margins stay the same or get better, even with inflation.
Less concerning ifOperating profit margins drop a lot because of rising costs.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is crucial for funding operations and investments. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow will be positive in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating cash flow stays negative or gets worse from $(67) million.
Why it matters: Management aims for the low end of adjusted EPS guidance. This would show confidence in reaching financial goals.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms adjusted EPS guidance of $5.80 to $6.20 in Q3.
Worry ifManagement cuts adjusted EPS guidance in Q3.
Why it matters: The new facility's success is critical for growth in the Asian market.
Supportive ifFacility makes over 200 million units in the first year.
Worry ifFacility production is far below 200 million units in the first year.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is key for funding operations and investments. Improvement shows better financial health.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow improves to $700 million or more for the full year.
Worry ifOperating cash flow remains negative or below $700 million for the year.
Why it matters: Better operating income is important for Sonoco's finances. It shows they manage costs well.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up by more than 5% from Q1.
Worry ifOperating income goes down or stays the same from Q1.
Why it matters: Operating cash flow is key for running the business and making investments. A good trend shows financial health.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow goes up a lot in Q3 compared to Q2.
Worry ifOperating cash flow keeps going down or stays negative in Q3.
Why it matters: A smooth CFO change is important for financial stability. It helps keep investor trust.
Watch forNew CFO provides guidance that is consistent with or better than prior expectations.
Also watch forNew CFO issues lower guidance than previously expected.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal is important for making more money in the next few years.
Supportive ifManagement says it saved at least $8 million in recurring costs in 2026-Q1.
Worry ifNo updates on cost savings or a decline in savings reported in future quarters.
Why it matters: This facility could boost sales in the growing Asian market.
Supportive ifEMEA/APAC paper can volumes are up by more than 9% in the next quarters.
Worry ifVolume growth from the Thailand facility does not happen or goes down.
Why it matters: This expansion is aimed at meeting growing demand and could improve revenue.
Supportive ifManagement confirms the $20 million investment is on track with no delays.
Worry ifReports of delays or cost overruns in the expansion project.