Safe Pro Group Inc (SPAI)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.76-9.51%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SPAI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 652.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 27 industry peers
SPAI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-15
The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: New agency awards could widen the customer base beyond Army work. The company named both agencies in its recent update.
Supportive ifA company filing names a new State Department or Air Force award. It gives the award's dollar value or delivery scope.
Worry ifThe next two earnings reports name no new award from either agency and report no related revenue.
Why it matters: The company links its cash outlook to government payments. Slow collections could strain its growth plans.
Worry ifAccounts receivable rises. The next filing shows longer collection times or less cash from operations.
Less concerning ifThe next filing shows more cash from operations as government payments arrive.
Why it matters: Q3 sales came from several government contracts. Q4 results can show if deliveries keep growing.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue is above $2.5 million. The report lists ongoing deliveries under government contracts.
Worry ifQ4 revenue is below $2.5 million, or the report cites delayed or canceled contract work.
Why it matters: AI gross margin rose from over 68% in Q1 to 75% in Q2. A new result tests whether that level lasts.
Supportive ifThe next earnings report shows AI gross margin at 70% or higher.
Worry ifThe next earnings report shows AI gross margin below 70%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$246 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $993 loss on $10,000 · 9.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,831 loss on $10,000 · 58.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The estimate is preliminary. Final results will show if the sharp sales rise held up.
Supportive ifThe November 13 report confirms Q3 revenue above $2.5 million.
Worry ifThe November 13 report puts Q3 revenue at or below $2.5 million.