Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Spruce Biosciences Inc (SPRB)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$46.61+8.88%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.90 → 0.90 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SPRB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain cash runway into early 2027 | The company has $107.3 million cash to fund operations into early 2027. | Under Pressure | Cash falls below $100M before early 2027 | Cash and cash equivalents: $96.295M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash and equivalents >= $100M into early 2027. The stored target says 2027-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Date unavailable96,295,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making development-stage business with a speculative growth profile, not a durable compounder today. Its long-term thesis is in the watch state: management is progressing toward a TA-ERT filing, but recent results are weak and the overall signal has turned cautious.
The valuation model indicates SPRB trades at a 70.15% premium to peers, with optionality, or the possibility of future product value, driving the gap. Model confidence is low, and the evidence does not spell out specific market expectations, so the premium is difficult to assess against the business’s current losses and execution risks.
Near term, consecutive earnings misses and an elevated risk of another miss leave results vulnerable; the latest reported miss was in August 2026. Over the multi-year view, management is targeting a TA-ERT regulatory submission by Q4 2026 and has added commercial and clinical leaders, while cash is expected to fund operations into early 2027; these plans are progress markers, not proof of eventual commercial success.
The thesis hinges on reaching the planned TA-ERT filing and maintaining enough cash to support the program beyond that milestone. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while continued strength among healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SPRB remains a speculative, execution-dependent story with a meaningful valuation premium, weak recent performance, and a near-term earnings risk. The central test is whether TA-ERT and cash-runway plans advance as stated. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Spruce believes that its cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2026 will be sufficient to fund its planned operations and debt obligations into the second half of 2027.” “Spruce believes that its cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2026, together with the net proceeds from its April 2026 underwritten public offering of common stock and pre-funded warrants, will be sufficient to fund its planned operations and debt obligations into the second half of 2027.”
EPS turns positive in 2027 | Analysts expect a positive EPS of $4.95 in 2027, up from losses in 2026. | Under Pressure | EPS remains negative or below $0 in 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Advance TA-ERT biologics license application submission | Spruce Biosciences aims to advance its TA-ERT drug approval by Q4 2026. | Intact | BLA submission delayed beyond Q4 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “TA-ERT Program Updates • BLA submission for TA-ERT for the treatment of MPS IIIB anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2026: Spruce continues to advance manufacturing readiness, regulatory interactions and commercial planning to support an anticipated BLA submission in the fourth quarter of 2026, seeking accelerated approval based on cerebrospinal fluid heparan sulfate non-reducing end (CSF HS-NRE) as a reasonably likely surrogate endpoint of clinical benefit.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.10 → $0.90 · observed estimates
$0.09B → $0.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.10 | $86,766,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.10 | $86,766,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.10 | $86,766,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.10 | $86,766,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.10 | $86,766,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.10 | $86,766,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.10 | $86,766,625 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.38 | $86,413,250 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.10 | $86,766,625 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.38 | $86,413,250 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.10 | $86,766,625 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.10 | $86,766,625 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.38 | $86,413,250 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.38 | $86,413,250 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.38 | $86,413,250 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.38 | $86,413,250 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.38 | $86,413,250 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.10 | $86,766,625 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.38 | $86,413,250 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.10 | $86,766,625 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.10 | $86,766,625 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.10 | $86,766,625 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.10 | $86,766,625 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.10 | $86,766,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.10 | $86,766,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.12 | $88,563,250 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.12 | $88,563,250 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.12 | $88,563,250 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.12 | $88,563,250 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.12 | $88,563,250 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.12 | $88,563,250 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.12 | $88,563,250 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.12 | $88,563,250 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.12 | $88,563,250 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.19 | $88,559,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.90 | $78,719,222 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.90 | $78,719,222 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.90 | $78,719,222 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.90 | $78,719,222 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.90 | $78,719,222 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.90 | $78,719,222 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.90 | $78,697,000 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.