Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.99+2.43%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.55 → 0.34 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SRPT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain non-GAAP R&D and SG&A expenses between $800M and $900M in 2026 | A supporting condition in Sarepta Therapeutics's published investment case. The stated target is non-GAAP R&D and SG&A expenses between $800M and $900M. | Intact | expenses exceed $900 million in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk biotechnology growth story, with commercial products and a developing siRNA pipeline. The long-term thesis is intact, though current evidence shows quarterly earnings can vary and confidence in the outlook is medium.
The valuation evidence points to SRPT as cheap versus peers, while a separate measure shows an 11% peer premium, so the overall comparison is mixed. The expectations gap is negative, but model confidence is low; the evidence does not support a firm conclusion about what the market already assumes.
Near term, product revenue has been stable across the first two quarters of 2026, and management has advanced the pipeline while narrowing expense guidance. Operating income was positive in both quarters, but net income turned negative in Q2, and earnings surprises have been erratic, making the next report a meaningful risk. The CEO transition and recent litigation filing add uncertainty, while the healthcare sector backdrop has improved.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on maintaining commercial execution, progressing the siRNA pipeline, and sustaining cash-flow and cost discipline despite quarterly variability. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while continued strength among healthcare peers could support sector momentum; weaker employment data could also weigh on the sector.
For the 1-3 year view, SRPT combines stable recent commercial performance and pipeline progress with uneven profitability and elevated execution risk. The thesis remains intact, but the evidence is mixed and near-term results matter. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Sarepta Therapeutics's published investment case. The stated target is CEO transition completed without disruption by end 2026. |
| Intact |
| CEO transition causes significant operational disruption or delays |
CEO transition completed 2026-07-27 vs end-2026 target Executive change event confirms Dr. Michael Severino succeeded Douglas Ingram as CEO on July 27, 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve profitability and cash-flow positivity in 2026 | Sarepta aims to be profitable and cash-flow positive in 2026. | Broken | net income or cash flow turns negative in any quarter of 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reach revenue of about $1.3 billion in 2026 | Revenue is guided to grow to about $1.3 billion in 2026. | Broken | annual revenue falls below $1.2 billion in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.45 → $0.34 · observed estimates
$1.41B → $1.41B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.45 | $1,408,535,950 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.45 | $1,408,535,950 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.45 | $1,408,535,950 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.86 | $1,418,322,237 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.45 | $1,408,535,950 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.45 | $1,408,535,950 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.86 | $1,418,322,237 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.86 | $1,418,322,237 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.86 | $1,418,322,237 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.45 | $1,408,535,950 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.45 | $1,408,535,950 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.45 | $1,408,535,950 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.86 | $1,418,322,237 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.86 | $1,418,322,237 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.87 | $1,391,154,100 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.76 | $1,414,342,245 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.60 | $1,389,680,420 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.76 | $1,414,342,245 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.76 | $1,414,342,245 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.76 | $1,414,342,245 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.76 | $1,414,342,245 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.76 | $1,414,342,245 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.76 | $1,414,342,245 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.76 | $1,414,342,245 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.76 | $1,414,342,245 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.75 | $1,401,132,113 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.75 | $1,401,132,113 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.75 | $1,401,132,113 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.75 | $1,401,132,113 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.75 | $1,401,132,113 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.65 | $1,393,358,077 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.65 | $1,393,358,077 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.65 | $1,393,358,077 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.75 | $1,405,205,437 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.75 | $1,405,205,437 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.75 | $1,405,205,437 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.75 | $1,405,205,437 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.75 | $1,405,205,437 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.75 | $1,405,205,437 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.75 | $1,405,205,437 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.75 | $1,405,205,437 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.75 | $1,405,205,437 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.75 | $1,405,205,437 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.75 | $1,405,205,437 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.75 | $1,405,205,437 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.75 | $1,405,205,437 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.75 | $1,405,205,437 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.75 | $1,405,205,437 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.75 | $1,405,205,437 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.75 | $1,405,205,437 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.75 | $1,405,205,437 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.75 | $1,405,205,437 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.75 | $1,405,205,437 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.78 | $1,409,339,029 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.78 | $1,409,339,029 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.78 | $1,409,339,029 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.78 | $1,409,339,029 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.78 | $1,409,339,029 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.78 | $1,409,339,029 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.78 | $1,409,339,029 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.78 | $1,409,339,029 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.78 | $1,409,339,029 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.78 | $1,409,339,029 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.78 | $1,409,339,029 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.78 | $1,409,339,029 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.78 | $1,409,339,029 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.65 | $1,404,925,983 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.65 | $1,404,925,983 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.55 | $1,405,319,758 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.55 | $1,405,319,758 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.55 | $1,405,321,349 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.55 | $1,405,321,349 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.55 | $1,405,321,349 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.55 | $1,405,321,349 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.55 | $1,405,321,349 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.55 | $1,405,316,803 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.53 | $1,405,416,803 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.53 | $1,403,094,084 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.53 | $1,403,094,084 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.53 | $1,403,094,084 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.49 | $1,403,777,565 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.49 | $1,403,777,565 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.51 | $1,405,832,111 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.51 | $1,405,832,111 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.51 | $1,405,832,111 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.51 | $1,405,832,111 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.51 | $1,405,832,111 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.51 | $1,405,832,111 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.34 | $1,405,832,111 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.34 | $1,405,832,111 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.34 | $1,405,832,111 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.34 | $1,405,832,111 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.34 | $1,405,832,111 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.34 | $1,405,832,111 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.34 | $1,405,832,111 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.34 | $1,405,833,974 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.34 | $1,405,833,974 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.34 | $1,405,833,974 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.34 | $1,405,833,974 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.34 | $1,405,833,974 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.34 | $1,405,833,974 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.34 | $1,405,833,974 | 11 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 5 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.