SoundThinking, Inc. (SSTI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.12+0.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SSTI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -67.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 10.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 77.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SSTI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-13
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends help us see how the company is doing in the market.
Worry ifCompany revenue growth reports below the median of the sector.
Less concerning ifCompany revenue growth remains above the median of the sector.
Why it matters: The company reaffirmed its revenue guidance for 2026. A revision could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifManagement reaffirms revenue guidance of $109M to $111M for 2026 during the next earnings call.
Less concerning ifManagement revises revenue guidance down from $109M to $111M for 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting revenue guidance is key for SoundThinking's growth plans. It shows progress towards the $109M to $111M target.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $25M.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $24.18M.
Why it matters: Exceeding $100 million in ARR would signal strong customer retention and growth. Falling short would indicate ongoing challenges.
Supportive ifARR is over $100 million as we enter 2027.
Worry ifARR is under $100 million as we enter 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$192 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $693 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,664 loss on $10,000 · 56.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The outcome of this RFP is crucial for future revenue. A win could boost confidence.
Supportive ifThey won the Chicago gunshot detection contract.
Worry ifThey lost the Chicago gunshot detection contract.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its loss-making status.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows a loss greater than the previous quarter's loss.
Less concerning ifThe Q2 earnings report shows a smaller loss. It may even show a profit.
Why it matters: Getting this margin is very important. It shows the company makes more money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin will be 16% to 18% in 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin remains below 16% for the year.
Why it matters: The outcome of this process could significantly impact future revenue and growth.
Watch forThere is news of a contract win in the Chicago procurement process.
Also watch forThere is news of a loss or delay in the Chicago procurement process.
Why it matters: Another earnings miss would show ongoing problems. This would hurt investor trust.
Worry ifA press release says earnings meet or beat expectations.
Less concerning ifAnother earnings miss was reported. This shows ongoing problems in operations.
Why it matters: The company's revenue guidance has already been cut. Further cuts signal deeper issues.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance remains within the revised range of $99M to $100M.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue guidance is cut again below $99M.
Why it matters: This margin shows how well the company controls costs. It also shows profit growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin for Q3 is reported at or above 8%.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin for Q3 falls below 8%.
Why it matters: The company expects $4 million in savings. Achieving this is vital for improving margins.
Supportive ifThe company confirmed it will save $4 million each year from workforce changes.
Worry ifSavings from workforce changes are reported to be less than $4 million.
Why it matters: ARR growth is important for steady revenue. A drop means problems with keeping customers.
Watch forARR reported at over $100M entering 2027.
Also watch forARR reported below $100M entering 2027.