SoundThinking, Inc. (SSTI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.33-0.36%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SSTI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -56.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 11.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 68.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers
SSTI — litigation filed
Dated 2026-09-29
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be “filed” with the SEC for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing with the SEC made by the Company regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference to this Current Report on Form 8-K in such a filing…
Why it matters: Management cut its ARR goal from about $110 million to over $100 million. The next reported figure tests customer growth and renewals.
Worry ifThe company reports ARR above $100 million at the start of 2027.
Less concerning ifThe company reports ARR of $100 million or less at the start of 2027.
Why it matters: Q2 results led to a sharp cut in the annual plan. Q3 revenue will show whether the weaker pace continued.
Worry ifOn November 11, SSTI reports Q3 revenue below the pace needed to reach its $99 million to $100 million 2026 plan.
Less concerning ifQ3 results keep SSTI on pace to reach at least $99 million in 2026 revenue.
Why it matters: Closing would complete the agreed cash deal. A delay or failed offer would leave the deal unsettled.
Watch forBy December 31, 2026, Transom completes the tender offer and second-step merger. Holders tender more than half of all shares.
Also watch forThe offer misses its closing window, gets tenders for less than half of all shares, or ends without closing.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin was 5%, below the annual plan. Q3 will test whether cost savings lift margins.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is below the pace needed to reach 8% for full-year 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 results keep the company on pace to reach at least an 8% adjusted EBITDA margin for 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$146 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $626 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,332 loss on $10,000 · 43.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Revenue from these products sets the extra cash payment tied to the deal. Results below $73.5 million earn no stated CVR payment.
Watch forThe deal's 2027 revenue measure for ShotSpotter and SafePointe reaches at least $73.5 million, triggering at least $0.50 per CVR.
Also watch forThe deal's 2027 revenue measure for ShotSpotter and SafePointe is below $73.5 million. The stated first payment level is not met.