Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (STEL)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$39.320.00%
Close 2026-07-01 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STEL
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $39 STEL trades at 1.2× p/b, in line with its 1.2× p/b peer median — but our blended $29 fair value sits well below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $43 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $20.01 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $28.31 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $38.86 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $39.25 | 1.2 | 32.74 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $27.77 |
| 12.2 |
| 2.28 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $24.02 | 11.7 | 2.05 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $24.69 | 12.0 | 2.05 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $29.97 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $31.93 | 15.6 | 2.05 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $24.53 | 11.7 | 2.09 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $45.27 | 1.2 | 37.75 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $18.77 | 12.2 | 1.54 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $31.60 | 11.7 | 2.70 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $32.48 | 12.0 | 2.70 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $42.00 | 15.6 | 2.70 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $49.78 | 1.2 | 41.52 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $14.46 | 12.2 | 1.19 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $37.94 | 11.7 | 3.24 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $39.00 | 12.0 | 3.24 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $50.43 | 15.6 | 3.24 | Analyst | high |