Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (STEL)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$39.320.00%
Close 2026-07-01 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STEL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 37.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -13.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 220 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
STEL — M&A activity — Changes in Control of the Registrant
Dated 2026-07-01
Changes in Control of the Registrant. The information set forth under Items 2.01, 3.01, 3.03 and 5.02 of this Current Report on Form 8-K is incorporated by reference into this
Why it matters: Earnings results will show the company's financial health. They will also show growth plans.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Slower loan growth may mean less demand or more competition in the market.
Worry ifTotal loans grow by more than $250 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal loans grow by less than $200 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Following the rules is important for the new company's success. Issues may hurt growth and stability.
Worry ifStellar Bancorp tells the NYSE about the merger and asks to be delisted.
Less concerning ifStellar does not follow the rules after the merger.
Why it matters: Completing the merger is key for Stellar's growth and market position.
Supportive ifMerger finished on July 1, 2026. Prosperity will continue as the main company.
Worry ifMerger fails to close by July 1, 2026, due to unmet conditions.
Why it matters: Completing the merger is important for Stellar's growth. It could improve their market position.
Supportive ifThe merger is finished on July 1, 2026. Prosperity will continue as the main company.
Worry ifThe merger is delayed or fails to close on the expected date.
Why it matters: Future dividend choices will show how capital is used after the merger. Regular dividends show good financial health.
Supportive ifStellar announces a dividend of $0.15 or more after the merger.
Worry ifStellar stops dividends or gives a lower dividend than $0.15 after the merger.
Why it matters: The merger may change net interest margins. Big changes could show if integration is working.
Watch forNet interest margin goes above 4.24% in the quarter after the merger.
Also watch forNet interest margin drops below 4.10% in the quarter following the merger.
Why it matters: Exceeding this threshold shows strong earnings growth and good cost management.
Supportive ifAdjusted net income for Q2 2026 exceeds $30 million.
Worry ifAdjusted net income for Q2 2026 is below $29 million.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows good financial health. It shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend of $0.15 is declared for Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo dividend is declared for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The outcome of the vote will determine if the merger proceeds. A successful vote supports growth plans.
Supportive ifShareholders will vote on May 27, 2026.
Worry ifShareholders will reject the merger proposal on May 27, 2026.
Why it matters: The merger's completion will impact Stellar's operations and market position. It marks a key transition.
Supportive ifMerger is completed on July 1, 2026, as planned.
Worry ifMerger is delayed or fails to close by July 1, 2026.
Why it matters: A steady or rising net interest margin shows good loan management and profit.
Supportive ifNet interest margin remains above 4.20% for the next quarter.
Worry ifNet interest margin drops below 4.20% in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$64 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $172 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,063 loss on $10,000 · 10.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.