Stagwell, Inc. (STGW)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.77-1.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STGW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -33.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
STGW — director transition
Dated 2026-08-04
Director — Beth J. Kaplan: Appointment of Beth J. Kaplan as a director effective July 31, 2026.
Why it matters: Adjusted EPS guidance shows profit expectations. A drop means weaker performance may come.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS guidance for 2026 was below $1.03.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS guidance for 2026 reported at or above $1.03.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key indicator of Stagwell's market position. A slowdown could indicate deeper issues.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 8% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth at or above 8% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show Stagwell's financial health and market position. This helps understand future performance.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth and better profits.
Also watch forEarnings report shows ongoing losses and falling revenue.
Why it matters: Strong new business growth shows market demand and Stagwell's strong position.
Supportive ifNet new business in Q3 exceeds $171 million.
Worry ifNet new business in Q3 falls below $141 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$171 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $510 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,678 loss on $10,000 · 36.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New business wins are vital for future growth. A drop could signal weakening demand or competitive pressures.
Worry ifNew business wins in Q3 below $150 million.
Less concerning ifNew business wins in Q3 at or above $150 million.
Why it matters: Free cash flow conversion shows how well Stagwell turns profits into cash. An update could indicate financial stability or issues.
Watch forManagement raises free cash flow guidance above 60%.
Also watch forManagement lowers free cash flow guidance to below 50%.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how profitable a company is. If it falls, there may be problems.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 was less than $475 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 was at or above $475 million.
Why it matters: If revenue growth turns positive, it shows recovery in the Communication Services sector. This may help Stagwell do better.
Supportive ifThe sector shows positive revenue growth for the next quarter.
Worry ifThe sector shows negative revenue growth for another quarter.
Why it matters: This signals whether the growth trend in the Digital Transformation segment is slowing. It is key to overall revenue growth.
Worry ifQ3 Digital Transformation revenue growth was less than 18%.
Less concerning ifQ3 Digital Transformation revenue growth was at or above 18%.
Why it matters: This suggests problems in making cash compared to profits, hurting financial health.
Worry ifFree cash flow conversion reported below 50% for Q3.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow conversion reported at or above 50% for Q3.