Stagwell, Inc. (STGW)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.00+2.23%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STGW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
STGW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” Such information (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: The Marketing Cloud grew fast in Q3, and management linked software products to its business shift. A sharp slowdown would weaken this sign of progress.
Supportive ifA later quarterly report shows Marketing Cloud organic net revenue grew more than 50% year over year.
Worry ifA later quarterly report shows Marketing Cloud organic net revenue growth at 50% or less year over year.
Why it matters: Management kept its full-year growth range. Q3 net revenue grew 8% year over year, but the full-year result is not yet known.
Watch forThe 2026 report shows total net revenue growth of 8% to 12%.
Also watch forThe 2026 report shows total net revenue growth below 8% or above 12%.
Why it matters: Stagwell raised its annual EBITDA range after Q3 growth of 25%. The year-end result will test whether that stronger pace lasts.
Watch forThe 2026 report shows adjusted EBITDA of at least $490 million.
Also watch forThe 2026 report shows adjusted EBITDA was below $490 million.
Why it matters: Cash flow rose year to date, but the release did not give the conversion rate. The final result will show whether it met management’s range.
Watch forThe 2026 report shows free cash flow conversion between 50% and 60% of adjusted EBITDA.
Also watch forThe 2026 report shows free cash flow conversion below 50% or above 60% of adjusted EBITDA.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$170 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $447 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,678 loss on $10,000 · 36.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.