Strategic Education, Inc. (STRA)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$58.47-21.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STRA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -40.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 3.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
STRA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2026, Strategic Education, Inc. (“Strategic Education”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the period ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is hereby incorporated by reference into this
Why it matters: ANZ had lower enrollment and a large reserve tied to a compliance matter. Its next results will show whether the profit hit eases.
Watch forANZ reports operating income above $1.0 million. Revenue in constant currency is no longer down year over year.
Also watch forANZ reports an operating loss, or revenue in constant currency falls further below the prior year.
Why it matters: Employer-linked and health care enrollment are growing, but total USHE enrollment still slipped. A rise would show broader demand is improving.
Supportive ifQ3 USHE enrollment is above last year. Employer-affiliated enrollment stays at or above 34.7%.
Worry ifQ3 USHE enrollment falls from last year. Employer-affiliated enrollment drops below 34.7%.
Why it matters: Sophia has grown Education Technology Services fast. More subscribers would support this trend.
Supportive ifIn the Q3 results, Sophia Learning subscribers grow more than 30% year over year, and ETS revenue grows year over year.
Worry ifSophia subscriber growth falls below 20% year over year, or ETS revenue declines year over year.
Why it matters: Share repurchases lowered the share count in the first half of 2026. Continued reductions can support earnings per share growth.
Supportive ifQ3 results show share repurchases. The diluted weighted average share count is below 21.7 million.
Worry ifQ3 results show no share repurchases. Diluted weighted average shares are at or above 21.7 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$133 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $375 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,327 loss on $10,000 · 33.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.