Sui Group Holdings Ltd (SUIG)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.92-12.80%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SUIG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -31.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 38.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 70.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers
SUIG — officer change
Dated 2026-07-14
Chief Investment Officer — Stephen Mackintosh: Mr. Mackintosh resigned from his position as Chief Investment Officer.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue and other income rose to $1.2 million, led by staking and lending income. Another rise would show that these sources keep growing.
Supportive ifIn Q3 results, revenue and other income exceed $1.2 million.
Worry ifIn Q3 results, revenue and other income fall below $948,000, the Q2 2025 level.
Why it matters: Staking made up a large part of the treasury's income. The last reported yield was about 1.7% a year, with roughly 5,300 SUI earned each day.
Watch forThe Q3 report shows a staking yield at or above 1.7% a year and daily yield near or above 5,300 SUI.
Also watch forThe Q3 report shows staking yield below 1.7% a year or daily yield below 5,300 SUI.
Why it matters: SUIG plans to lend to Sui partners. The Bluefin loan grew to 6 million SUI, but the Q2 release also reported a large accounting loss tied to it.
Watch forA new filing names a SUI loan, its size, and revenue share. Later results show lending income and no new realized loss on that loan.
Also watch forA new loan brings a realized loss, missed repayment, or lower revenue share than the Bluefin deal's 11%.
Why it matters: Q2 net loss fell from $71.0 million in Q1 to $18.9 million. A sharp rise would undo that progress.
Worry ifQ3 net loss is greater than $18.9 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net loss is below $18.9 million and operating loss also stays below Q2's $19.7 million.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$377 on $10,000 · ±3.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $967 loss on $10,000 · 9.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,055 loss on $10,000 · 70.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The treasury rose to 1.35 SUI per share by August 3. Growth in SUI per share would show that treasury actions add to each share's holdings.
Watch forThe Q3 report shows more than 1.35 SUI per share, with the share count disclosed.
Also watch forThe Q3 report shows less than 1.34 SUI per share, or a higher share count without a rise in SUI held.
Why it matters: The chairman is managing the investment transition after the CIO left. A named replacement would show who leads treasury and investment choices.
Supportive ifA company filing or press release names a new or interim CIO and states the person's role.
Worry ifThe next quarterly report says the CIO role is still open. The chairman is still managing the transition.