Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.21+0.21%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SUPN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 57.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 71.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SUPN — M&A activity — Changes in Control of Registrant
Dated 2026-11-02
Changes in Control of Registrant. At the Effective Time, pursuant to the terms of the Merger Agreement and the certificate of merger filed with the Secretary of State of the State of Delaware, the certificate of incorporation of the Company, as in effect immediately prior to the Effective Time, was amended and restated in its entirety. A copy of the amended and restated certificate of incorporation of the Company is filed as Exhibit 3.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated h…
Why it matters: ONAPGO sales rose to $17.1 million in Q3. The full-year target is $60 million to $65 million.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 ONAPGO net sales reach at least $60 million, within the stated $60 million to $65 million range.
Worry ifFull-year ONAPGO net sales fall below $60 million.
Why it matters: Qelbree sales rose 12% in Q3, and prescriptions rose 18%. Another quarter of growth would support demand across age groups.
Supportive ifQelbree net sales grow year over year, and total prescriptions also grow year over year.
Worry ifQelbree net sales or total prescriptions fall year over year.
Why it matters: The merger is due to close on November 2, 2026. Closing starts the combined company and its plan for $125 million in yearly cost savings.
Supportive ifThe merger closes on November 2, 2026. The combined company starts trading as SUPN on November 3.
Worry ifThe merger does not close on November 2, or the companies announce a delay or termination.
Why it matters: Supernus filed an application to add a second supplier. FDA approval could support supply, while a delay would leave that step unresolved.
Watch forThe FDA approves ONAPGO's second supplier by mid-2027, as the company said could happen.
Also watch forThe FDA does not approve the second supplier by mid-2027, or the company reports a delay or rejection.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $336 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,061 loss on $10,000 · 50.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The study would move SPN-443 into human testing. The company said it plans to start by the end of 2026.
Supportive ifSupernus starts the SPN-443 Phase 1 study in healthy adults by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifThe study has not started by December 31, 2026, or Supernus reports a delay.