Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
$43.53-1.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SUPN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 37.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 46.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SUPN — officer departure
Dated 2026-08-03
The filing describes a new employment agreement for the current CEO and President, contingent on a merger.
Why it matters: Strong sales of ONAPGO will show the product's market potential. This will help overall revenue growth.
Supportive ifONAPGO net sales reported at $70 million or higher for the full year 2026.
Worry ifONAPGO net sales fall below $55 million for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth may show problems with key products.
Worry ifQ2 total revenue growth below 30% year over year would indicate a slowdown.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth of 30% or more year over year would confirm strong momentum.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Supernus is performing. This affects investor confidence.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) is over $0.10. This shows better performance.
Also watch forEPS falls below $0.00, showing continued losses.
Why it matters: Reaffirming revenue guidance shows confidence in growth and execution. It can boost investor trust.
Supportive ifManagement confirms full year 2026 revenue guidance of $840 million to $870 million.
Worry ifManagement cuts the revenue guidance to below $840 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$147 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $304 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,412 loss on $10,000 · 24.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Reiterating guidance shows confidence in revenue growth. This can help keep investors calm.
Supportive ifManagement confirms full year 2026 revenue guidance during the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers or withdraws the full year 2026 revenue guidance.
Why it matters: Good results would support Supernus' pipeline plan and future growth. This drug is key for epilepsy.
Supportive ifThe trial results show clear progress in treating focal seizures that resist treatment.
Worry ifThe trial results fail to meet primary endpoints.
Why it matters: Strong prescription growth shows the market likes the product. This helps the growth plan.
Supportive ifZURZUVAE prescriptions increase by over 50% in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifZURZUVAE prescriptions grow less than 20% in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: News about milestones can change how much money Supernus needs. It can also affect future cash flow.
Worry ifThey announced a milestone that helps cash flow.
Less concerning ifThey announced a missed milestone. This increases financial strain.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would show higher profits. It would also show better efficiency in operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating earnings reach $140 million or more for the full year.
Worry ifAdjusted operating earnings fall below $140 million for the full year.
Why it matters: Advancements in the clinical pipeline can lead to new product launches, driving future revenue. This is essential for long-term growth.
Watch forManagement shares good Phase 2 results for SPN-817 or SPN-820.
Also watch forManagement reports setbacks or delays in the clinical trials for SPN-817 or SPN-820.
Why it matters: Missing earnings guidance may show problems in operations. This can hurt trust from investors.
Worry ifEarnings below $140 million for 2026 would show problems in operations.
Less concerning ifEarnings of $140 million or more would show good performance.
Why it matters: Approval will help supply stability and market trust. This could increase sales and revenue.
Supportive ifFDA approval for the second supplier is granted by mid-2027.
Worry ifFDA approval is delayed beyond mid-2027 or denied.
Why it matters: Updates on earnings guidance show how well the company controls costs and revenue.
Watch forManagement raises earnings guidance in the next earnings call.
Also watch forManagement lowers earnings guidance in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: More money from partnerships shows strong demand. Good partnerships can boost revenue.
Supportive ifZURZUVAE partnership revenue will be over $50 million next quarter.
Worry ifZURZUVAE partnership revenue will fall below $35 million next quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth continues or if there are issues. Investors will react to the numbers.
Watch forTotal revenues were over $200 million for Q2 2026.
Also watch forTotal revenues were under $180 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in these products is important for Supernus's money health and market position.
Supportive ifCombined revenues of key growth products increase by more than 50% year over year.
Worry ifCombined revenues of key growth products grow less than 30% year over year.