Silvaco Group, Inc. (SVCO)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$6.73+15.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SVCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -65.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 78.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 60 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SVCO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2026, Silvaco Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2026, and posted to its website supplemental financial information in connection therewith. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information furnished under this
Why it matters: Bookings show new customer demand. Silvaco set a Q3 goal of $18.0 million, plus or minus 10%.
Worry ifQ3 bookings are reported below $16.2 million, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifQ3 bookings reach at least $16.2 million and stay within the guided range.
Why it matters: Silvaco reached non-GAAP operating profit after cutting costs. Higher costs could put that progress at risk.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP operating expenses top $15.2 million. That is above the $14.5 million guide and its 5% range.
Less concerning ifQ3 non-GAAP operating expenses are no more than $15.2 million.
Why it matters: Management tied its growth outlook to more FTCO wins, AI offerings, and a stronger pipeline. The next results can test that outlook.
Supportive ifSilvaco reports record revenue in Q4 2026 and revenue growth of at least 10% in 2027.
Worry ifQ4 revenue is not a record, or reported 2027 revenue growth is below 10%.
Why it matters: Silvaco guided to Q3 revenue of $17.0 million, plus or minus 10%. A result below that range would miss its own bar.
Worry ifOn November 4, Q3 revenue is reported below $15.3 million, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is at least $15.3 million and within the guided range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$305 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $862 loss on $10,000 · 8.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,780 loss on $10,000 · 57.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New customer wins would show that buyers are adopting Silvaco's AI tools. Management said it was working to close more wins.
Supportive ifSilvaco names at least one new AI FTCO customer win after the Q2 win.
Worry ifBy year end, Silvaco reports no new AI FTCO win beyond the Q2 customer.