Silvaco Group, Inc. (SVCO)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.54+2.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SVCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -66.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 74.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SVCO — capital allocation
Dated 2026-08-06
by reference. On the Closing Date, the Company issued and sold the Note to Micron for an aggregate cash purchase price of $10.0 million. The Note and the Conversion Shares issuable upon conversion of the Note were offered and sold in a private placement in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act. In connection with the issuance, Micron represented to the Company, among other things, that Micron is an “accredited investor” within the meanin…
Why it matters: Strong IP revenue growth shows high demand for Silvaco's products. This supports overall growth.
Supportive ifIP revenue growth reported above 70% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifIP revenue growth reported below 70% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Controlling expenses is important for making money. Meeting this target shows good cost control.
Supportive ifSilvaco says operating costs are $14.5 million or less in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating costs exceed $15.2 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it may hurt Silvaco's performance in a decelerating growth phase.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is lower than average. This shows possible challenges ahead.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is higher than average. This suggests stability in the market.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating revenue goals shows strong business growth. It supports management's plan for growth.
Supportive ifRevenue reported for Q3 2026 is $17.0 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue reported below $15.3 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$326 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $850 loss on $10,000 · 8.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,475 loss on $10,000 · 54.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If Silvaco achieves this margin, it shows they can keep making money and control costs.
Supportive ifSilvaco reports non-GAAP gross margin of 88% or higher in Q3.
Worry ifNon-GAAP gross margin falls below 86% in Q3.
Why it matters: If Silvaco hits or exceeds this revenue target, it shows growth and better operations.
Supportive ifSilvaco reports Q3 revenue of $17.0 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls below $15.3 million (10% below guidance).
Why it matters: Progress in these partnerships could improve Silvaco's products and help them in the market.
Watch forSilvaco shares news about a big development. This comes from its partnerships with NVIDIA or Dassault.
Also watch forNo updates or news about these partnerships in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Winning new AI FTCO customers would show strong demand for Silvaco's AI solutions. This could boost revenue and market confidence.
Supportive ifSilvaco announces securing at least one new AI FTCO customer in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new AI FTCO customer wins are reported in Q3 2026.