Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Silvaco Group, Inc. (SVCO)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$6.73+15.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.20 → 0.20 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SVCO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve gross margin to 88% in Q2 2026 | Gross margin is targeted to improve to 88%. | Improving | gross margin falls below 85% in 2026-Q2 | Gross margin: 83.99% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 88%. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 202683.994108 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Similar revenue growth expected in 2027 SANTA CLARA, Calif.” “– August 6 , 2026 -- Silvaco Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: SVCO) (“Silvaco” or the “Company”), a provider of TCAD, EDA software, and SIP solutions that enable innovative semiconductor design and digital twin modeling through AI software and innovation, today announced its second quarter 2026 results.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business working toward profitable growth, not an established durable compounder. The thesis is on watch: recent execution improved, but the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
The valuation evidence is mixed: SVCO is described as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 73% premium versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, and the model has medium confidence; the snapshot labels what is priced in as justified, with low fragility.
Near-term results show strong revenue growth and a move to positive non-GAAP operating income in 2026-Q2, alongside sharply higher IP revenue. Gross margin and expense control are progressing, though both priorities are rated mixed, and the business remains loss-making on the broader earnings-quality measure. Recent performance is below its industry cohort, and the stated risk of a guidance cut remains relevant despite a quiet risk tier.
The multi-year thesis depends on SVCO sustaining AI and FTCO platform growth while keeping margins high and expenses controlled. A guidance cut would weaken the setup; rate cuts or steadier results from large technology peers could support the sector backdrop. The evidence on how the recent M&A activity and capital-allocation event affect execution is limited.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SVCO offers a developing profitable-growth story, but its high risk, volatile management record, and below-cohort performance leave meaningful execution questions. The thesis hinges on continued growth and cost discipline without a guidance setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Control operating expenses near $15.5 million in Q2 2026 | The company manages operating expenses near $15.5 million. | Intact | operating expenses exceed $16 million in 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Similar revenue growth expected in 2027 SANTA CLARA, Calif.” “– August 6 , 2026 -- Silvaco Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: SVCO) (“Silvaco” or the “Company”), a provider of TCAD, EDA software, and SIP solutions that enable innovative semiconductor design and digital twin modeling through AI software and innovation, today announced its second quarter 2026 results.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Return to positive EPS by FY 2027 | A primary condition in Silvaco Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.28. | Broken | EPS remains below $0.10 in FY 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue of approximately $18 million in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Silvaco Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$18 million. | Intact | revenue falls below $16 million in 2026-Q2 | Revenue: $16.294M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$18 million. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 202616,294,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.28 → $0.20 · observed estimates
$0.08B → $0.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.28 | $82,300,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.28 | $82,300,833 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.28 | $82,300,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.28 | $82,300,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.28 | $82,300,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.28 | $82,300,833 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.28 | $82,300,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.28 | $82,300,833 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.28 | $82,300,833 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.28 | $82,300,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.28 | $82,301,917 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.28 | $82,301,917 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.28 | $82,300,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.28 | $82,301,917 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.28 | $82,300,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.29 | $81,884,170 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.28 | $82,301,917 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.28 | $82,301,917 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.20 | $80,647,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.28 | $82,301,917 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.28 | $82,301,917 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.28 | $82,301,917 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.28 | $82,301,917 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.28 | $82,301,917 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.28 | $82,301,917 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.20 | $80,753,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.20 | $80,746,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.20 | $80,753,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.20 | $80,753,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.20 | $80,753,433 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.