SW
Smurfit WestrockNYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, SW has a composite score of -21.0 and a signal label of "cautious." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 65.5, with notable weaknesses in momentum (-73.3) and sector performance (8.8). The top drivers affecting the score include macroeconomic factors such as growth, inflation, labor, and rates. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.87
- Slope (norm)-0.30
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.59 → $0.42 (-29.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 30.1% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Deliver Adjusted EBITDA guidancegrowthbehind0% progress
4/30: “We re-affirm our previous expectation of delivering Adjusted EBITDA of between $5.0 billion and $5.3 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $5.0 to $5.3 billion for 2026. However, the company reported a net income loss of $90 million in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards achieving the guidance.
- 2.Manage capital expenditurecapital allocationwatchprovisional
10/29: “Our 2026 capital spend is expected to be in a $2.4 to $2.5 billion range.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q3. Capital expenditure guidance set at $2.4 to $2.5 billion for 2026. The financials do not provide specific capex figures for recent quarters, making it difficult to assess progress on this priority.
- 3.Achieve quarterly EBITDA targetsgrowthbehind0% progress
4/30: “We currently expect to deliver Adjusted EBITDA of between $1.1 billion and $1.2 billion for the second quarter.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Quarterly EBITDA guidance set at $1.1 to $1.2 billion for 2026-Q2. The company reported a net income loss of $90 million in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in achieving these targets.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 45%; 252d 40%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −31%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLB) — 0.10 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 33/100, drawdown 37/100, beta 10/100, earnings vol —.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Deliver Adjusted EBITDA guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on achieving the full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $5.0 to $5.3 billion.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $5.0 to $5.3 billion for 2026. However, the company reported a net income loss of $90 million in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards achieving the guidance.
0%CEO/CFO:“We re-affirm our previous expectation of delivering Adjusted EBITDA of between $5.0 billion and $5.3 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We re-affirm our previous expectation of delivering Adjusted EBITDA of between $5.0 billion and $5.3 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“As a result, we now expect to deliver full year Adjusted EBITDA in a $4.9 to $5.1 billion range.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Our current estimate for a full year Adjusted EBITDA remains between $5.0 billion and $5.2 billion.”
- #2
Manage capital expenditure
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Maintain capital expenditure within the $2.4 to $2.5 billion range for 2026.
WatchNewly stated in 2025-Q3. Capital expenditure guidance set at $2.4 to $2.5 billion for 2026. The financials do not provide specific capex figures for recent quarters, making it difficult to assess progress on this priority.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“Our 2026 capital spend is expected to be in a $2.4 to $2.5 billion range.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-10-29Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Our 2026 capital spend is expected to be in a $2.4 to $2.5 billion range.”
- #3
Achieve quarterly EBITDA targets
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on meeting quarterly Adjusted EBITDA targets to support overall growth.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Quarterly EBITDA guidance set at $1.1 to $1.2 billion for 2026-Q2. The company reported a net income loss of $90 million in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in achieving these targets.
0%CEO/CFO:“We currently expect to deliver Adjusted EBITDA of between $1.1 billion and $1.2 billion for the second quarter.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We currently expect to deliver Adjusted EBITDA of between $1.1 billion and $1.2 billion for the second quarter.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“For the first quarter, we currently expect to deliver Adjusted EBITDA of between $1.1 billion and $1.2 billion.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E over the last 5 years
17 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SW Smurfit Westrock | -21 | — | elevated |
LIN Linde plc | +24 | inexpensive | moderate |
NEM Newmont | +17 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +6.4 | — | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | +18 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If materials sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)-8.0 pts
- If materials sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.5 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-308d agoItem 2.02
by reference. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” hereunder for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filings.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 65 - 2026-02-272mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 25, 2026, Terrell K. Crews and Lourdes Melgar, members of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Smurfit Westrock plc (the “Company”), notified the Company that they will be stepping down from the Board, effective as of the conclusion of the Company’s 2026 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, which is currently scheduled for May 1,…
executive changeneutralscore 11 - 2026-02-112mo agoItem 2.02
by reference. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” hereunder for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filings.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 11
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.