Smurfit Westrock (SW)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put SW beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Materials: fringe margins under pressure (0q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Deliver adjusted EBITDA near $5.15 billion in fiscal 2026: FY26 EBITDA guide $4.9B-$5.1B vs $5.15B target.
View ThesisMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens weak on earnings delivery.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 31% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskSW's growth has to keep compounding to justify the price. The latest earnings miss shows adjusted EBITDA guidance of $4.9 billion to $5.1 billion, below the $5.15 billion target. SW trades at 30× P/E versus a peer median of 18×. The price reflects less growth than forecasted, indicating modest expectations. A specific risk is the 43% probability of a miss on the next earnings call. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. SW is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 17 analysts currently covering SW (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 7 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for SW in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare SW with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SW Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put SW next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Delisting impacts market access and growth potential.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $45.83
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $45.83.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
