Southwest Gas Corp (SWX)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
$88.06-0.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SWX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SWX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. released summary financial information to the general public, including the investment community, regarding operating performance for the quarter and six months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the associated press release and summary financial information is attached hereto as Exhibit 99. This Form 8-K and the attached exhibit are provided under
Why it matters: A strong increase in net income would show the company is improving its operations. This aligns with management's goal to increase net income.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 exceeds $152.2M, which is a 10% increase from Q1.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 is less than or equal to $138.4M.
Why it matters: Approval would raise revenue by about $101 million. This would help financial stability.
Supportive ifArizona approved the general rate case. New rates will start in April 2027.
Worry ifArizona rejected or delayed the general rate case. This will stop revenue growth.
Why it matters: Final orders will decide if the $71 million revenue increase is approved. This will affect earnings.
Supportive ifThe Nevada Public Utilities Commission says yes to the rate case and the revenue increase.
Worry ifThe commission denies the rate case or approves a much smaller revenue increase.
Why it matters: Earnings performance will show if the company can keep growing. This follows a recent earnings miss.
Worry ifQ3 earnings exceed guidance and show improvement over Q2 results.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings fall short of guidance or show further decline from Q2.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$81 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $171 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,016 loss on $10,000 · 10.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A positive outcome would boost revenue by about $71 million, supporting growth plans.
Supportive ifNevada approved the general rate case. New rates will start in October 2026.
Worry ifNevada rejected or delayed the general rate case. This will slow revenue growth.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps keep the dividend and supports financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities goes up each quarter.
Worry ifCash from operating activities goes down each quarter.
Why it matters: Successful outcomes could add $172 million in yearly revenue. This would boost earnings.
Supportive ifRate cases in Arizona and Nevada are approved. This leads to more revenue.
Worry ifRate cases are denied or result in lower than expected revenue increases.
Why it matters: The dividend shows that the company is stable. It also shows that management cares about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company confirms the dividend will remain at $0.62 per share.
Worry ifThe company announces a cut to the dividend per share.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company maintains growth momentum and meets guidance.
Watch forQ2 earnings per share exceed $1.91, indicating continued growth.
Also watch forQ2 earnings per share fall below $1.91, suggesting a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it could benefit Southwest Gas. It shows the sector is improving.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 5% in the next quarter.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 5%.
Why it matters: The outcome will impact revenue expectations and could affect earnings guidance for 2026.
Watch forCalifornia approved the rate case decision. This will help increase revenue.
Also watch forCalifornia denied or delayed the rate case decision. This will hurt revenue expectations.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show the impact of rate case decisions. They will also show project progress.
Watch forEarnings are better than expected. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forEarnings fall short of expectations. This shows ongoing challenges in revenue growth.
Why it matters: Earnings results can affect how investors feel. A strong performance can boost confidence.
Supportive ifQuarterly earnings per share from continuing operations are more than $0.58.
Worry ifQuarterly earnings per share from continuing operations are less than $0.58.
Why it matters: More contracted demand could lead to higher investment and revenue.
Supportive ifManagement announces new agreements for more capacity. This is beyond the current 1 Bcf per day.
Worry ifNo new binding agreements are reached, or demand decreases from current levels.