Talkspace, Inc. (TALK)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.250.00%
Close 2026-08-18 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TALK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 229.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 27.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 202.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TALK — M&A activity — Changes in Control of Registrant
Dated 2026-08-17
Changes in Control of Registrant. As a result of the consummation of the Merger, a change of control of the Company occurred on the Closing Date and the Company became an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Parent. The total amount of cash consideration payable to the Company’s equityholders in connection with the Merger and pursuant to the Merger Agreement was approximately $870.6 million. The funds used by Parent to consummate the Merger and complete the related transactions came from borro…
Why it matters: Ongoing lawsuits could change how the company works and its money.
Worry ifManagement says there are fewer legal risks or that some cases are done.
Less concerning ifNew lawsuits come up or current cases get worse, affecting operations.
Why it matters: The merger's completion is key for Talkspace's growth and future strategy. It could change how the company operates and its market position.
Supportive ifThe merger will close in Q3 2026. All regulatory approvals are obtained.
Worry ifThe merger does not close. This is due to regulatory issues or other problems.
Why it matters: Litigation risks can affect the merger and business operations. It is important to watch these changes.
Worry ifNo new major lawsuits are filed. Existing cases are resolved in a good way.
Less concerning ifNew lawsuits are filed or existing cases get worse. This raises financial risks.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is critical for meeting the 2026 guidance of $275M to $290M.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth is over $70 million. This shows a good trend.
Worry ifQ3 revenue remains stagnant or declines, failing to show growth.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$19 on $10,000 · ±0.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $340 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,377 loss on $10,000 · 13.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector revenue growth speeds up, it may help Talkspace's performance. This could improve investor sentiment.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth exceeds 12% year over year.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth remains below 8% year over year.
Why it matters: Being delisted could hurt Talkspace's market presence and investor trust.
Worry ifNasdaq says Talkspace will stay listed or has a plan to return.
Less concerning ifNasdaq proceeds with the delisting of Talkspace shares.
Why it matters: Better EBITDA helps long-term profits. It also builds trust with investors.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is reported between $30M and $35M. This meets the target.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $30M. This raises concerns about making a profit.
Why it matters: If Talkspace integrates well, it can improve its services and help more patients. This may lead to better financial results.
Supportive ifUHS has better patient engagement or services six months after the merger.
Worry ifUHS has big problems with integration. This can cause service issues and bad patient reviews.
Why it matters: Revenue guidance updates will show if Talkspace is on track to meet its targets. This impacts investor confidence.
Watch forRevenue guidance is raised above $290M for 2026. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forRevenue guidance is lowered below $275M. This shows possible challenges ahead.
Why it matters: An update on revenue guidance will indicate if Talkspace can meet its $275M to $290M target.
Watch forTalkspace raises its revenue guidance. This shows it is doing better.
Also watch forTalkspace lowers its revenue guidance. This shows it faces ongoing growth challenges.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how well Talkspace is managing costs. It also shows profit improvement.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA improves to at least $30M in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA is under $20M. This shows ongoing problems with making money.