Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Protara Therapeutics, Inc. (TARA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.13-9.36%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TARA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Positive interim and final clinical trial results | A supporting condition in Protara Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Positive interim data and final results supporting approval. | Improving | Negative or inconclusive trial results | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making clinical-stage biotechnology business, not an established earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is in watch status: management is tracking its stated trial milestones, but there is no reported revenue and recent performance has been weak.
The evidence snapshot gives no valuation or market-expectations data, so whether TARA is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers is unclear. The known setup includes an August earnings miss and weak performance versus its industry cohort, but the evidence does not show what expectations are already reflected.
Near term, fundamentals are likely to remain centered on clinical progress rather than revenue: management expects ADVANCED-2 enrollment completion and THRIVE-3 interim results in 4Q 2026, with a TARA-002 application planned for the second half of 2027. Management has kept these milestones consistent across the last two quarters, but the recent earnings miss, high risk rating, and near-term miss concern make execution uncertain.
The multi-year thesis hinges on meeting trial and regulatory milestones and eventually translating clinical progress into revenue. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while continued strong results and guidance from healthcare sector leaders could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TARA remains a high-risk, early-stage thesis with milestones to track but limited evidence of commercial progress. Confidence is low, and the case depends on clinical execution amid weak recent performance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Protara Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss no worse than -$19.6M and cash burn no worse than -$21.3M in 2026-Q1. |
| Broken |
| Operating loss or cash burn significantly worse than -$19.6M or -$21.3M in 2026-Q1 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company expects its cash and cash equivalents and marketable debt securities will be sufficient to fund its planned operations and milestones into 2028.” “The Company expects its cash and cash equivalents and marketable debt securities will be sufficient to fund its planned operations and milestones into 2028.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Complete enrollment of ADVANCED-2 trial BCG-Unresponsive cohort | Protara aims to complete enrollment of its ADVANCED-2 trial by 2H 2026. | Intact | Enrollment not completed by end of 2026-H2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We continue to make progress in the ADVANCED-2 trial and expect to complete enrollment in the fourth quarter of 2026.” “TARA-002 in NMIBC ● The Company expects to complete enrollment of the BCG-Unresponsive cohort of the ADVANCED-2 trial in the second half of 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.58 → $-1.63 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.58 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.58 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.58 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.64 | $1,000,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.64 | $1,000,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.58 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.58 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.58 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.58 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.64 | $1,000,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.64 | $1,000,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.64 | $1,000,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.64 | $1,000,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.64 | $1,000,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.58 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.64 | $1,000,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.58 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.64 | $1,166,670 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.64 | $1,166,670 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.58 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.58 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.58 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.58 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.58 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.58 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.63 | $1,000,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.63 | $1,000,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.63 | $1,000,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.63 | $1,000,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.63 | $1,000,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.63 | $1,000,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.63 | $1,000,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.63 | $1,000,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.63 | $1,000,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.63 | $1,000,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.63 | $1,166,667 | 6 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.