TrueBlue, Inc. (TBI)
NYSEIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.85-0.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TBI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -89.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 94.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TBI — capital allocation — Material Modification to Rights
Dated 2026-05-06
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. On May 6, 2026, TrueBlue, Inc. (the “Company”) and Computershare Trust Company, N.A. (the “Rights Agent”) entered into the First Amendment to Rights Agreement (the “Amendment”), amending the Rights Agreement, dated as of May 14, 2025, between the Company and the Rights Agent (the “Rights Agreement”). The Amendment changes the final expiration date of the Rights (as defined in the Rights Agreement) from the close of business (as defined in t…
Why it matters: New M&A deals could support growth and improve earnings performance for TrueBlue.
Supportive ifA press release announcing a significant M&A deal valued over $50M.
Worry ifNo new M&A announcements in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows progress in cost management and profit improvement.
Supportive ifNet loss in Q2 is less than $20 million.
Worry ifNet loss in Q2 is equal to or greater than $20 million.
Why it matters: If competitors like Caterpillar or GE improve their RFP status, TrueBlue may face more pressure.
Worry ifCompetitors report strong RFP status. This means more demand in the sector.
Less concerning ifCompetitors have weak RFP status. This suggests demand pressures are still the same.
Why it matters: New acquisitions could drive growth and improve market position. This is crucial for long-term strategy.
Supportive ifA new acquisition is announced that matches the company's goals.
Worry ifNo new M&A activity is announced. This suggests growth may be slowing.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$199 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $625 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,876 loss on $10,000 · 48.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA shows improved efficiency. This supports growth in the long run.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is over $15 million for Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is under $10 million in Q3.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector grows again, it could help TrueBlue's performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is over 5% from last year. This shows a good trend.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is under 5% from last year. This shows ongoing weakness.
Why it matters: Higher adjusted EBITDA shows better efficiency and cost control. This helps the company make money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA rises to above -$2 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA worsens or stays below -$3 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss means better financial health and stronger operations.
Supportive ifNet loss per diluted share improves to less than $0.10 in Q3.
Worry ifNet loss per diluted share remains at or worsens beyond $0.11 in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows good execution of growth plans and market demand.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year, confirming strong market position.
Worry ifIf Q3 revenue growth is under 10% year over year, demand or execution may be weak.
Why it matters: Lower SG&A expenses show better efficiency and cost control. This can help profits.
Supportive ifIf SG&A expenses drop below $84 million in Q3 2026, it shows good cost management.
Worry ifIf SG&A expenses rise or stay above $84 million, it may show operational problems.
Why it matters: A new independent director can improve governance. This helps TrueBlue strengthen its board.
Supportive ifIf a new independent director is named by the deadline, it shows board progress.
Worry ifIf no new independent director is named by the deadline, it may show governance issues.