TriCo Bancshares (TCBK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$54.40+0.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TCBK
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $54 TCBK trades at 1.3× p/b, in line with its 1.2× p/b peer median, and our $57 fair value agrees. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $61–$66. Note: our $57 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($61–$66). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $65.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $59.19 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $62.47 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $13.32 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$61.00 – $66.00 (median $65.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-07-27
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $62.66 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $51.90 | 1.2 | 41.85 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $48.81 | 11.7 | 4.18 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $47.38 | 10.9 | 4.35 | ntm analyst | high |
| PEG | 12M | $30.20 | 7.2 | 4.17 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $44.31 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $54.41 | 13.0 | 4.17 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $51.04 | 11.9 | 4.27 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $63.81 | 1.2 | 51.45 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $46.04 | 11.7 | 3.95 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $27.48 | 10.9 | 2.52 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $18.27 | 7.2 | 2.52 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $32.92 | 13.0 | 2.52 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $73.24 | 1.2 | 59.05 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $44.27 | 11.7 | 3.79 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $14.62 | 10.9 | 1.34 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $9.72 | 7.2 | 1.34 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $17.52 | 13.0 | 1.34 | Analyst | high |