Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
TriCo Bancshares (TCBK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$52.44-2.73%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.37 → 4.47 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TCBK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.36 per share | TriCo Bancshares keeps paying a steady $0.36 quarterly dividend. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.36 in FY26 | Dividend per share: $0.36 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.36 per share quarterly. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20260.36 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TCBK is a regional financial business with a growth-and-execution thesis, not a clear turnaround story. The thesis is intact, with recent performance holding in the top half of its industry, but management execution has been variable and confidence in the evidence is medium.
Valuation is close to peer levels, and the expectations gap is small, so the evidence points to expectations that are broadly aligned with current fundamentals. Valuation has risen recently, but the priced-in assessment describes low fragility rather than a setup dependent on strong execution and unusually favorable conditions.
Near-term results show some improvement: third-quarter net income rose from the prior quarter, and loans grew year over year. Management has delivered on its stated financial-results priority, but completion of the First Hawaiian merger remains subject to approvals and conditions, with no closing milestone reported this quarter.
Over the next few quarters, guidance is an important swing factor, since a cut could lead analysts to lower estimates. Rate cuts could weigh on the Financials sector, while continued earnings strength from sector peers could support sector momentum. Over the multi-year view, merger completion and continued delivery on growth are central tests.
For the next one to three years, the long-term thesis is intact but depends on steady financial execution and progress toward the merger, with rates and guidance adding near-term uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “While capital deployment remains top of mind for management, we expect that share repurchase activities, if any, will be limited given the merger announcement.”” “In addition, the deployment of capital through share repurchase activities will continue to benefit our financial results” said Rick Smith, Chairman and CEO.”
EPS grows to at least $4.22 in 2026 | A primary condition in TriCo Bancshares's published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.22 USD per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $3.7 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $1.06 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.22 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20261.06 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to outpace expense growth | A supporting condition in TriCo Bancshares's published investment case. The stated target is revenue growth > expense growth. | Intact | revenue growth falls below expense growth over next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Implement share repurchase program up to 2 million shares | The company has a share buyback program to return capital. | Under Pressure | no share repurchases executed by end of FY26 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.34 → $4.47 · observed estimates
$0.47B → $0.47B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.34 | $466,863,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.34 | $466,863,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.34 | $466,863,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.36 | $466,863,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.36 | $466,863,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.36 | $466,911,440 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.36 | $469,723,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.36 | $469,771,440 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.36 | $469,771,440 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.38 | $468,975,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.38 | $468,975,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.38 | $468,975,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.38 | $468,975,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.38 | $468,975,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.38 | $469,034,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.37 | $468,409,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.37 | $468,409,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.37 | $468,409,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.37 | $468,409,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.37 | $468,409,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.37 | $468,409,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.37 | $468,409,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.37 | $468,409,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.37 | $468,409,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.37 | $468,409,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.37 | $468,409,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.37 | $468,409,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.37 | $468,409,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.37 | $468,409,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.37 | $468,409,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.37 | $468,409,550 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.37 | $468,409,550 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.37 | $468,409,550 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.38 | $467,800,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.38 | $467,800,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.38 | $467,800,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.40 | $467,800,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.40 | $467,800,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.40 | $467,800,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.40 | $467,800,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.47 | $471,266,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.47 | $471,266,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.47 | $471,266,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.47 | $471,266,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.47 | $471,266,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.47 | $471,266,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.47 | $471,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.47 | $471,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.