TriCo Bancshares (TCBK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$54.40+0.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TCBK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
TCBK — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-21
Other Events The Board of Directors of TriCo Bancshares (NASDAQ: TCBK), parent company of Tri Counties Bank, declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.36 (thirty-six cents) per share on its common stock, no par value, on August 20, 2026. The dividend is payable on September 25, 2026 to holders of record on September 11, 2026.
Why it matters: A lower net interest margin may show pressure on profits. This could impact total earnings.
Worry ifNet interest margin stays above 4.00% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin falls below 4.00% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Details on share repurchases can boost investor confidence and support share price.
Supportive ifManagement shares a clear timeline or amount for the share buyback program.
Worry ifNo mention of the share repurchase program in the Q2 earnings call.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for TriCo Bancshares. A rise would show progress.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue exceeds $13.16M, the amount reported for Q1.
Worry ifQ2 revenue remains below $13.16M.
Why it matters: A drop below the median would signal a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase.
Worry ifRevenue growth is below 12% compared to last year. This shows a big slowdown.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above 12% year over year, showing continued strength.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $204 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,448 loss on $10,000 · 14.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher expenses may hurt profits. They can also show management problems.
Worry ifNon-interest expenses rise less than 5% in Q3 2026. This shows good cost management.
Less concerning ifNon-interest expenses grow more than 5% in Q3 2026, raising concerns about cost control.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for TriCo Bancshares. A drop signals trouble in meeting goals.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 0% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Why it matters: This shows if the company is improving its financial health. Revenue growth must exceed expense growth for positive operating leverage.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds expense growth by more than 2%.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is less than or equal to expense growth.
Why it matters: Steady loan growth shows strong demand. It also shows good lending strategies.
Supportive ifLoan growth reported above 13.7% annualized in Q3 2026.
Worry ifLoan growth reported below 13.7% annualized in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The merger will create a larger bank with more resources. This could lead to better growth and stability.
Supportive ifThe merger closes by the end of 2026 with all necessary approvals received.
Worry ifThe merger may be delayed. It might not get regulatory or shareholder approvals.
Why it matters: If net income keeps growing, it shows strong financial health and stability.
Supportive ifQ3 net income exceeds $34.2 million, the level reported in Q2.
Worry ifQ3 net income falls below $34.2 million.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows good financial health and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares the dividend remains at $0.36 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifThe Board cuts the quarterly dividend below $0.36 per share.