Texas Community Bancshares Inc (TCBS)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$17.30+0.58%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TCBS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of —
TCBS — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-30
Other Events On October 29, 2026, TCBS and SJCB issued a joint press release announcing the entry into the Merger Agreement. A copy of the joint press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS This communication may contain certain forward-looking statements, which are intended to be, and are hereby identified as, forward-looking statements for purposes of the safe harbor provided by Section 27A…
Why it matters: SJCB had $35.3 million in deposits and $12.5 million in loans. Deal costs or customer losses could weaken the value of the purchase.
Watch forTCBS discloses deal costs and a plan to combine the banks, with no material customer or staff losses reported.
Also watch forTCBS reports deal costs above the stated $9.5 million cash price. It says customer losses or integration problems are serious.
Why it matters: TCBS agreed to pay $9.5 million in cash for SJCB. Shareholder and regulator approval are still needed.
Watch forSJCB shareholders and regulators approve the deal, and TCBS closes it in Q1 2027.
Also watch forSJCB shareholders reject the deal, regulators block it, or the closing moves past Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Management broke ground in Terrell and said loan demand supports its growth target. New branches also add costs.
Watch forTCBS opens the Terrell branch and reports loan growth from the March 31, 2026 level of $298.5 million.
Also watch forThe Terrell opening is delayed, or loans remain below $298.5 million in later reports.
Why it matters: The report can show whether loan growth, deposit costs, and the 3.49% net interest margin held up.
Watch forTCBS reports net interest margin at or above 3.49%, with loan growth and lower deposit costs.
Also watch forNet interest margin falls below 3.49%, loans keep shrinking, or deposit costs rise above 2.33%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$29 on $10,000 · ±0.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $214 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,179 loss on $10,000 · 11.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.