Texas Community Bancshares Inc (TCBS)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$17.500.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TCBS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
TCBS — CFO transition
Dated 2025-12-02
Chief Financial Officer — Jason McCrary: Jason McCrary was appointed as the new Chief Financial Officer.
Why it matters: A strong increase in net income would confirm ongoing growth momentum for the bank.
Supportive ifQ2 net income reported above $1,088,000, which is a 30% increase from Q1.
Worry ifQ2 net income growth below 30%, signaling a slowdown in performance.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals potential issues in the business. It can impact long-term outlook.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Entering a new market can significantly boost growth and market share for the bank.
Supportive ifThere is an official announcement for a new branch in Terrell, Texas.
Worry ifThere is no progress on the new branch. This may cause delays in growth.
Why it matters: A drop in nonperforming assets shows good management. It also shows better asset quality and risk.
Supportive ifNonperforming assets are below $10.8 million. This is 2.5% of total assets.
Worry ifNonperforming assets are going up. This may mean there are issues with loan quality.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$60 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $227 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,179 loss on $10,000 · 11.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stable technology costs show good cost management. It means upgrades are working well.
Watch forTechnology costs are stable or lower than last quarter.
Also watch forTechnology costs go up a lot past $77,000 next quarter.
Why it matters: Growth in the loan portfolio shows strong demand. It also shows good management of lending.
Supportive ifLoans and leases receivable net reported above $300 million by the end of Q2.
Worry ifThe loan portfolio is getting smaller. This means weak demand or management problems.
Why it matters: Strong loan demand is key for Texas Community Bancshares to achieve its growth targets. This will show if the expansion into the DFW market is successful.
Supportive ifLoan demand goes up a lot in the outer DFW market after the new branch opens.
Worry ifLoan demand fails to grow or declines in the DFW market after the branch opens.
Why it matters: Better net interest income shows good loan management. This is important for making more money.
Supportive ifNet interest income increases by more than 3.1% in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet interest income decreases or grows less than 3.1% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Fewer nonperforming assets mean better asset quality. This helps the bank's financial health.
Supportive ifNonperforming assets decrease by more than 1.8% in the next quarter.
Worry ifNonperforming assets increase or stay the same in the next quarter.