Teradata (TDC)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.05-2.57%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TDC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TDC — director transition
Dated 2026-08-03
Director — Bernd Leukert: The board expanded and elected a new director as part of a Cooperation Agreement.
Why it matters: Total ARR growth below 2% would indicate challenges in long-term growth strategy. This could affect market perception.
Worry ifTotal ARR growth reported below 2% for the full year 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal ARR growth reported at or above 2% for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Melissa Fisher's appointment may bring new ideas and skills to the Board. This could improve strategic plans.
Supportive ifMelissa Fisher is officially appointed to the Board by March 1, 2026.
Worry ifThe appointment does not occur by March 1, 2026.
Why it matters: If recurring revenue is flat or negative, Teradata may face growth challenges. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifRecurring revenue reported in Q2 2026 is flat or down year-over-year.
Less concerning ifRecurring revenue grows each year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Sector growth affects Teradata's performance. A drop signals broader issues.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: A better operating margin means lower costs. This shows the company is working well.
Supportive ifGAAP operating margin was more than -8.1% in the next quarters.
Worry ifGAAP operating margin remains at -8.1% or worsens.
Why it matters: A fall in cash flow may show problems with cash and operations. This would worry investors about finances.
Worry ifCash flow from operations was below $330 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations remains above $350 million.
Why it matters: If operating income improves, it shows Teradata is fixing cost problems. This could help trust in management.
Supportive ifOperating income goes from -$36 million in Q1 2026 to a positive amount in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income stays negative or drops more in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports growth and stability. A drop could raise concerns.
Supportive ifCash from operations remains at or above current levels.
Worry ifCash from operations drops a lot from current levels.
Why it matters: A decline in cash flow from operations would indicate that the settlement's benefits are fading. This could affect liquidity.
Worry ifCash flow from operations drops below $642 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations remains above $642 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A decline worse than -6% would indicate deeper issues in revenue generation. This could lead to negative market reactions.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue down year-over-year worse than -6%.
Less concerning ifQ3 total revenue declines less than -4% or grows year-over-year.
Why it matters: Keeping cash from operations above $300M shows good cash flow management.
Supportive ifCash from operations reported above $300M in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operations reported below $300M in Q2.
Why it matters: A decline worse than -4% would signal trouble in sustaining growth. This could impact investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 recurring revenue falls more than -4% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 recurring revenue falls less than -4% or grows compared to last year.
Why it matters: An EPS below $0.55 shows weaker profits than expected. This may hurt stock performance.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP EPS reported below $0.55.
Less concerning ifQ3 non-GAAP EPS reported at or above $0.55.
Why it matters: More board appointments may show better governance and a clear strategy.
Supportive ifAnother board member appointment may be announced in the next few months.
Worry ifNo additional board appointments announced in the next few months.
Why it matters: A drop below $665 million suggests cash flow problems. This can affect future investments.
Worry ifCash flow from operations for 2026 reported below $665 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations for 2026 reported at or above $665 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$185 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $416 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,516 loss on $10,000 · 35.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.