Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (TDS)
NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$37.83+0.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TDS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TDS — dividend update
Dated 2026-06-01
Other Events Array Special Dividend On June 1, 2026, the Board of Directors of Array declared a special cash dividend to holders of Array’s Common Stock (“Common Stock”) and holders of Array’s Series A Common Stock (“Series A Common Stock”) of $11.00 per share payable in cash to the stockholders of record as of June 11, 2026. On June 1, 2026, TDS held 33,005,877 shares of Series A Common Stock and 37,782,826 shares of Common Stock. The payment date in respect of the dividend is scheduled for…
Why it matters: TDS needs to grow revenue for long-term plans and to keep investor trust.
Supportive ifTDS Telecom reports Q2 2026 revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Worry ifTDS Telecom reports Q2 2026 revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows TDS's commitment to fiber expansion. It is vital for future growth.
Supportive ifTDS expects capital spending to be between $625 million and $675 million for 2026.
Worry ifTDS expects capital spending to be less than $625 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in spending plans show TDS's focus on fiber growth and overall plans.
Supportive ifTDS raises spending plans to over $675 million for 2026.
Worry ifTDS lowers spending plans to under $625 million for 2026.
Why it matters: This dividend shows that Array is doing well. It also shows TDS cares about its shareholders.
Supportive ifThe special dividend of $11.00 per share is paid as scheduled.
Worry ifIf the dividend is delayed or canceled, it may mean TDS has financial problems.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$113 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $280 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,063 loss on $10,000 · 30.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management aims to improve operating income. Progress here is key to financial health.
Supportive ifOperating income increases to above $150M in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $100M in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if TDS continues its revenue growth trend. This is crucial for investor confidence.
Watch forIn Q2 2026, total operating revenues are more than $1,015 million.
Also watch forIn Q2 2026, total operating revenues are less than $1,015 million.
Why it matters: Starting the share buyback program could signal confidence in the company's value and future.
Supportive ifTDS announces the start of share repurchases under its $500 million program.
Worry ifTDS delays or cancels the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Selling spectrum assets can help TDS's finances and support growth.
Supportive ifArray sells more than $100 million in spectrum.
Worry ifArray fails to close any spectrum sales in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Successful spectrum sales are key to Array's revenue and overall financial health. They support TDS's growth strategy.
Supportive ifTDS has closed more spectrum sales to T-Mobile and Verizon.
Worry ifTDS fails to close any announced spectrum sales by the end of Q4.
Why it matters: TDS needs steady revenue growth for long-term success. This growth builds trust with investors.
Watch forQ2 2026 revenue exceeds $309.5 million, showing continued growth.
Also watch forIf Q2 2026 revenue is less than $309.5 million, it could mean problems.
Why it matters: This growth shows strong demand for tower services and good operations.
Supportive ifArray reports site rental revenues growing at least 90% year over year.
Worry ifArray reports site rental revenues growing less than 90% year over year.
Why it matters: Successful spectrum sales are key for TDS's revenue and business plans.
Supportive ifThe pending spectrum sales to T-Mobile and Verizon are now complete.
Worry ifDelays or cancellations of the spectrum sales.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows strong execution of TDS's fiber expansion strategy. It reflects demand for their services.
Supportive ifTDS reports at least 250,000 marketable fiber service addresses by the end of Q3.
Worry ifTDS reports fewer than 250,000 marketable fiber service addresses by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: This proposal's outcome could change TDS's structure and market position.
Watch forThe Array Board accepts the acquisition proposal and sets a vote date.
Also watch forThe Array Board may reject the acquisition plan or delay their decision.
Why it matters: This acquisition will add more fiber service addresses for TDS. It will help TDS grow.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close on time in Q3 2026. It will add 11,000 fiber addresses.
Worry ifIf the acquisition is delayed or canceled, TDS's growth plans will not succeed.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it could indicate broader sector challenges affecting TDS.
Worry ifTDS reports revenue growth below 3% year over year.
Less concerning ifTDS reports revenue growth above 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Finishing this deal will improve TDS's fiber services.
Supportive ifTDS completes the deal for Granite State Communications.
Worry ifTDS delays or cancels the Granite State Communications deal.
Why it matters: The decision will impact TDS's strategy and future growth. A positive outcome could enhance TDS's market position.
Supportive ifThe committee accepts TDS's deal for Array.
Worry ifThe committee rejects TDS's deal.
Why it matters: More fiber addresses show TDS can grow its market.
Supportive ifTDS Telecom adds over 66,000 fiber service addresses in one quarter.
Worry ifTDS Telecom adds fewer than 50,000 fiber service addresses in one quarter.