Reading TDW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TDW free→Reading TDW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TDW free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with TDW trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The outlook hinges on whether TDW cuts guidance on the next call or if sector bellwethers continue to beat earnings. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $76.91. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $77 the market pays 29× p/e — above the 22× p/e peer median but in line with its own 28× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $74 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 4% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.07x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated fragile grew net income 38% of the time over the next year (vs 44% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.77 → $0.48 (-37.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$168.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$488.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,516.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
The signal changed to cautious. Valuation rose to full.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Closing this acquisition will expand Tidewater's fleet and market reach in Brazil. It is key for growth.
Confirms:The acquisition is finalized by the end of Q2 2026.
Disproves:The acquisition is delayed beyond Q2 2026 or falls through.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TDW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. In accordance with the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Tidewater Inc. (the “Company”) notes that certain statements set forth in this Current Report on Form 8-K provide contain certain forward-looking statements which reflect our current view with respect to future events and future financial performance. Forward-looking statements are all statements other than statements of historical fact. All suc…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TDW Tidewater, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | full | moderate |
SLB Schlumberger | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | full | moderate |
BKR Baker Hughes | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
HAL Halliburton | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | fair | moderate |
FTI TechnipFMC | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maintain the revenue guidance for 2026, reflecting confidence in business momentum and the Wilson Sons Ultratug acquisition.
Continue to emphasize operational excellence to improve vessel uptime and efficiency.
Finalize the acquisition of Wilson Sons Ultratug to enhance market presence in Brazil.
Management emphasizes improving operational efficiency to enhance profitability.
Management aims to enhance cash flow from operations to support business activities.
Why it matters: A rise in sector revenue growth could help Tidewater. It may improve market conditions.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up back toward its highs.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains stagnant or declines.
Why it matters: Day rates show how strong the market is and how well Tidewater is doing.
Confirms one read:Average day rate increases above $22,500 in Q2 2026.
Confirms the other:Average day rate falls below $22,000 in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue guidance shows trust in how the business is doing.
Confirms:Management confirms revenue guidance of $1.43 to $1.48 billion in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Management cuts revenue guidance to below $1.43 billion for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher costs can hurt profits and cash flow, affecting overall results.
Confirms:Operating costs go up a lot because of the conflict, hurting margins.
Disproves:Operating costs stay the same or go down, showing better cost control.
Why it matters: More net income shows better financial performance. This is important for investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 net income increases from $6.14M.
Disproves:Q2 net income decreases further.