TE Connectivity (TEL)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$208.65-0.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TEL
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $209 TEL trades at 19× p/e, below its 33× p/e peer median, but our blended $202 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits below the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $225–$300. Note: our $202 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($225–$300). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $237 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $235.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $443.46 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $497.36 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $72.71 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$225.00 – $300.00 (median $235.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-07-23
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 24% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 3.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $8.46/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $104.96 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $173.76 | 14.5 | 13.04 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $298.85 | 24.1 | 12.42 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $264.09 | 20.5 | 12.89 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $243.94 | 3.7 | 65.95 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $199.55 | 18.4 | 10.83 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $73.75 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $214.91 | 19.8 | 10.83 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $376.67 | 33.5 | 11.26 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $454.51 | 24.1 | 18.88 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $297.18 | 20.5 | 14.51 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $306.54 | 3.7 | 82.87 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $267.33 | 18.4 | 14.51 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $287.91 | 19.8 | 14.51 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $601.08 | 24.1 | 24.97 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $370.95 | 20.5 | 18.11 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $382.63 | 3.7 | 103.44 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $333.69 | 18.4 | 18.11 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $359.38 | 19.8 | 18.11 | Analyst | high |