TE Connectivity (TEL)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$208.65-0.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TEL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers
TEL — credit agreement
Dated 2026-02-17
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On February 13, 2026, TE Connectivity plc (the “Company”) entered into a Five-Year Senior Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”), by and among the Company, as parent guarantor, its wholly-owned subsidiary TE Connectivity Switzerland Ltd. (the “Intermediate Guarantor”), as intermediate guarantor, its wholly-owned subsidiary, Tyco Electronics Group S.A. (“TEGSA”), as borrower, the lenders party thereto (the “Lenders”) and Bank of America, N.A., as a…
Why it matters: Beating this EPS target shows strong operations and steady profit margins.
Supportive ifGAAP EPS reported at or above $2.84 for Q4 FY26.
Worry ifGAAP EPS reported below $2.84 for Q4 FY26.
Why it matters: Cash flow under $1 billion raises worries. This affects financial health and efficiency.
Worry ifCash flow from operations was below $1 billion.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations was above $1 billion. This shows strong performance.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding guidance shows strong demand. It helps the company grow. This shows management's confidence in the business.
Supportive ifReported sales for Q4 reach or exceed $5.25 billion.
Worry ifSales fall below $5.25 billion in Q4.
Why it matters: More record orders mean strong demand and a good market position.
Supportive ifQ4 orders reported above $5.7 billion, continuing the trend of record growth.
Worry ifIf Q4 orders drop below $5.7 billion, it may show demand weakness.
Why it matters: Raising adjusted EPS by 17% is important. It shows better profits and efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reported at $1.50 or higher for Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS reported below $1.25 for Q2.
Why it matters: An adjusted EPS below $3.05 means profits may be weaker than expected.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS below $3.05 shows earnings growth is weaker.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS exceeds $3.05, confirming strong earnings growth.
Why it matters: Order growth below 10% may show weak demand. This could lead to revenue problems.
Worry ifOrders growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifOrders growth remains above 10%, confirming strong demand.
Why it matters: Achieving double-digit sales growth is a key goal for TE Connectivity. It shows strong demand and market position.
Supportive ifQ2 sales growth reported at 10% or higher year over year.
Worry ifQ2 sales growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Closing this deal would expand TE's Industrial segment and boost future sales.
Supportive ifThe Astrodyne TDI deal is now complete.
Worry ifThe Astrodyne TDI deal is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Sales growth below 11% would show a slowdown. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifReported sales growth for Q4 is 11% or better year over year.
Less concerning ifSales growth for Q4 drops below 11% year over year.
Why it matters: An adjusted EPS below $3.05 would show weaker profit growth. This would raise concerns.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q4 meets or exceeds $3.05.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS for Q4 falls below $3.05.
Why it matters: Finishing this acquisition would boost TE's Industrial segment. It would also help growth.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closing will be announced before the end of 2026.
Worry ifA delay or cancellation of the Astrodyne TDI acquisition would be a bad sign.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow could show problems in operations. This may affect returns.
Worry ifCash flow from operations for Q4 meets or exceeds $1.2 billion.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations for Q4 falls below $1.2 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$136 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $371 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,113 loss on $10,000 · 21.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.