Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Tela Bio Inc (TELA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$0.78-6.90%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TELA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Progress toward positive free cash flow | A primary condition in Tela Bio Inc's published investment case. The stated target is reduce negative free cash flow by at least 30% in FY26. | Broken | free cash flow remains flat or worsens in FY26 | Free cash flow: $-9.44M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: reduce negative free cash flow by at least 30% in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 2026-9,440,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative turnaround rather than a durable compounder: TELA is loss-making, recent performance is weak, and management execution has been volatile. The thesis remains on watch, with medium overall evidence confidence and high business risk.
TELA is described as cheap versus peers, while the model’s confidence is low and its expectations gap is negative. The evidence labels the current pricing as justified with low fragility, but does not show that weak results or recovery expectations are fully reflected in the valuation.
Near term, revenue has been stagnant: Q2 revenue declined 4% year over year, despite growth in international sales, and recent results have been below the industry cohort. Management is focused on renewed H2 2026 growth and announced annual cost reductions, but their delivery is not yet clear; guidance remains withdrawn, and consecutive earnings misses raise near-term risk.
Over the next several quarters, reinstating guidance and showing stronger revenue growth would provide evidence that management can execute. The multi-year view also depends on whether international growth continues and the planned expense reductions take effect, while weaker employment data or a slowing healthcare backdrop could add pressure.
TELA’s 1-to-3-year thesis depends on a credible operating recovery, but current evidence is mixed and execution risk remains high. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Second quarter 2026 revenue target of $20 million | Q2 2026 revenue target is $20 million, slightly above Q1's $19.1 million. | Broken | Q2 2026 revenue falls below $19 million | Revenue: $19.291M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $20 million revenue in Q2 2026. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 11, 202619,291,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve at least 8% revenue growth in 2026 | A primary condition in Tela Bio Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY revenue growth in 2026. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26 | Revenue growth: -4.49% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY revenue growth in 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 2026-4.485815 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.54 → $-0.44 · observed estimates
$0.10B → $0.09B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.54 | $95,725,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.54 | $95,725,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.54 | $95,725,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.56 | $95,725,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.56 | $95,725,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.56 | $95,725,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.54 | $95,725,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.56 | $95,725,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.54 | $95,725,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.56 | $95,725,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.56 | $95,725,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.56 | $95,725,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.56 | $95,725,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.56 | $95,725,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.54 | $95,725,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.56 | $95,725,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.56 | $95,725,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.54 | $95,725,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.54 | $95,725,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.54 | $95,725,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.54 | $95,725,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.54 | $95,725,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.54 | $95,725,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.54 | $95,725,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.54 | $95,725,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.51 | $87,105,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.51 | $87,105,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.51 | $87,105,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.51 | $87,105,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.51 | $87,105,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.51 | $87,105,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.51 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.51 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.51 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.51 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.51 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.51 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.51 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.51 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.51 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.51 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.45 | $87,100,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.44 | $86,933,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.44 | $86,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.44 | $86,320,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.44 | $86,320,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.44 | $86,320,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.44 | $86,320,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.44 | $86,320,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.44 | $86,320,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.44 | $86,320,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.44 | $86,320,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.44 | $86,320,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.44 | $86,320,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.44 | $86,320,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.44 | $86,320,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.44 | $86,320,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.44 | $86,320,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.44 | $86,320,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.44 | $86,320,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.44 | $86,320,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.44 | $86,320,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.