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TFIN
Triumph Bancorp, Inc.NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$75.68+1.39%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 54% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact TFIN's performance. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Banks - Regional
- Market cap
- $1.73B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2014-09-19
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-15
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $75.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$47.93consensus
Range $23.20 – $62.28
vs price: +58% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$75.17consensus
Range $59.47 – $249.20
vs price: +1% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $76, TFIN's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 55× p/e (4.5× the 12× p/e peer median, and 1.1× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~53% near-term growth vs our ~2% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $50 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
55.2x
peer 12.4x · own history 51.9x
Premium
4.5x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
53%
our forecast 2%
Our fair value
$49.54
range $22.73 – $61.73
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premium
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 53% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
93rd pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.39x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
83rd pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +32.1% / 30d, n=4for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.31 → $0.41 (+32.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 20% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$135.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$460.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,876.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 7d
Watch for Q2 Payments revenue growth above 5%
Why it matters: This would indicate progress toward the company's growth targets in the Payments segment.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Payments revenue growth for Q2 exceeds 5% compared to Q1.
Disproves:Payments revenue growth for Q2 is below 5% compared to Q1.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TFIN yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for changes in FOMC interest rate policy on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting TFIN and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If TFIN raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-21), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If TFIN cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-21), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on TFIN and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping TFIN and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2915d agoItem 8.01
Other Events On May 29, 2026, Triumph Financial, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that the board of directors of the Company declared a quarterly cash dividend on its 7.125% Series C Fixed-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock (the “Series C Preferred Stock”) of $17.81 per share (equivalent to $0.44525 per depositary share representing a 1/40 interest in a share of Series C Preferred Stock). Such dividend is payable June 30, 2026, to shareholders of record of the…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+6.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.