TG Therapeutics, Inc. (TGTX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$57.98-5.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TGTX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 106.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 54.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 117 industry peers
TGTX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-03
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 hereto), shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing made by the Company under the Exchange Act or Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: A clear early signal could add support for the cell therapy program. Weak or delayed data would leave that path unproven.
Watch forIn the second half of 2026, the company presents early Phase 1 azer-cel data in progressive MS. Results show a clinical or test-based benefit.
Also watch forThe data show no benefit in patients or tests. They raise a safety concern, or are not presented by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Q2 costs rose as the company funded trials and new supply work. Costs above the plan could weigh on earnings.
Worry ifFull-year R&D and SG&A costs, excluding non-cash pay, exceed $400 million. Or, added costs for subcutaneous supply exceed the stated $100 million.
Less concerning ifFull-year R&D and SG&A costs stay within $350–$400 million, excluding non-cash pay, and added supply costs stay near $100 million.
Why it matters: Q2 U.S. sales were $227.7 million. Another strong quarter would support the sales growth behind the raised 2026 target.
Supportive ifQ3 BRIUMVI U.S. net sales reach about $240 million or more, keeping the company on track for its $890–$905 million 2026 target.
Worry ifQ3 BRIUMVI U.S. net sales fall below $227.7 million, or management cuts its 2026 target below $890 million.
Why it matters: A filing would move the simpler start-up dose toward review. The trial already met its main test.
Supportive ifThe company files a supplemental BLA in the second half of 2026 for the single 600 mg Day 1 infusion.
Worry ifThe filing does not happen by year-end 2026. Or, full ENHANCE results raise safety or drug-exposure concerns.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$166 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $373 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,183 loss on $10,000 · 21.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A pass on the drug-level test would support a simpler at-home option. A miss would weaken this growth path.
Supportive ifTop-line Phase 3 results show the lower end of the 90% confidence range for drug exposure is above 0.80. No new safety signal appears.
Worry ifThe lower end is 0.80 or lower, results miss the stated year-end 2026 or early 2027 window, or a new safety issue appears.