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THC
Tenet HealthNYSEHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$174.66+0.86%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but risk is elevated and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Earnings quality is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include guidance changes from THC and the performance of sector bellwethers like HCA, DVA, and EHC, as these could significantly impact THC's outlook. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Medical Care Facilities
- Market cap
- $14.19B
- Employees
- 100,000
- IPO date
- 1994-01-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-28
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $174.66. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$228.94consensus
Range $186.13 – $320.98
vs price: -24% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$201.99consensus
Range $191.74 – $263.22
vs price: -14% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $175 THC trades at 10× p/e, below its 14× p/e peer median. Our $220 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $210–$288. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
10.1x
peer 14.5x · own history 10.5x
Premium
0.7x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-21%
our forecast 6%
Our fair value
$220.08
range $184.03 – $320.98
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 21% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
97th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.65x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
55th pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish19 analysts, 91% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $4.19 → $4.18 (-0.3% / 30d). 5 raised, 12 cut, 19 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 91% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme AI-drug-discovery.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$167.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$381.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,408.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'fair'.
Valuation changed. It rose from "inexpensive" to "fair." Risk fell. The sector backdrop remained a headwind. Recent financial performance was strong.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for net income improvement in Q2 earnings
Why it matters: Higher net income shows better financial health. This could make investors more positive.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Net income reported higher than the previous quarter.
Disproves:Net income reported lower than the previous quarter.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for THC yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Health Care revenue growth dropping below 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HCA, DVA, and EHC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting THC and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If THC raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for THC and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If THC cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like HCA, DVA, and EHC start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping THC and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-301mo agoItem 2.02
of Form 8-K, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. On April 30, 2026 , Tenet Healthcare Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting the financial results of th…
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.