Timken (TKR)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$123.16+1.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TKR
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $123 TKR trades at 20× p/e, below its 26× p/e peer median, but our blended $121 fair value is roughly in line with the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $117–$160. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $143 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $135.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $35.31 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $61.00 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $80.55 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$117.00 – $160.00 (median $135.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-09-01
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $5.73/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $163.27 |
| 16.9 |
| 11.06 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $134.99 | 24.5 | 5.50 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $142.62 | 20.4 | 6.98 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $194.15 | 2.9 | 67.92 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $276.35 | 46.0 | 6.01 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $52.00 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $128.60 | 21.4 | 6.01 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $161.06 | 25.6 | 6.29 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $125.45 | 24.5 | 5.11 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $160.10 | 20.4 | 7.84 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $219.09 | 2.9 | 76.64 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $360.44 | 46.0 | 7.84 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $167.72 | 21.4 | 7.84 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $119.47 | 24.5 | 4.87 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $173.20 | 20.4 | 8.48 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $237.02 | 2.9 | 82.91 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $389.93 | 46.0 | 8.48 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $181.45 | 21.4 | 8.48 | Analyst | high |