Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Timken (TKR)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$99.94-6.27%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.31 → 7.32 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TKR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS meets or exceeds $5.0 in 2026 | The company raised EPS guidance to $5.0 for 2026. | Broken | EPS guidance falls below $4.7 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TKR is an industrial business with a moderately risky, execution-focused long-term thesis rather than a clear turnaround story. The thesis is intact, but confidence has eased from high to medium as momentum improved.
TKR is described as cheap versus peers, and the pricing signal is considered justified rather than fragile. The expectations gap is modestly negative, but the evidence does not spell out exactly what the market assumes.
Near-term momentum improved, and the company recently reported an earnings beat and raised guidance. The sector is a headwind, while recent peer misses and TKR’s history of a deep miss keep execution risk relevant. Over the multi-year view, profitable growth and margin expansion remain management priorities, but progress is still being watched.
The near-term thesis depends in part on TKR sustaining its recently raised guidance; reversing course would also damage management credibility. Sector bellwethers’ results and guidance could either support or weaken the industrial backdrop. Leadership transitions and retention are another swing factor, with management actions so far described as mixed.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis is intact but rests on continued execution, guidance credibility, and a steadier sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Net income improved from $62M to $98M in one quarter. |
| Intact |
| Net income falls below $62M quarterly run-rate |
Net income: $93.8M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $98M net income quarterly run-rate. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202693,800,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves through cost control | Profit rises with better cost control. | Under Pressure | Operating income falls below $109M run-rate | Operating income: $166M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $168M operating income in 2026-Q1 equivalent run-rate. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 2026166,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 4.5% annually | A primary condition in Timken's published investment case. The stated target is >=4.5% YoY. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 4.5% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 4.69% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=4.5% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20264.692766 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.23 → $7.32 · observed estimates
$4.99B → $5.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.23 | $4,992,576,550 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.23 | $4,992,576,550 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.23 | $4,992,576,550 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.23 | $4,992,576,550 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.23 | $4,992,576,550 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.26 | $5,002,334,006 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.26 | $5,002,334,006 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.23 | $4,992,576,550 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.26 | $5,002,334,006 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.23 | $4,992,576,550 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.23 | $4,992,576,550 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.26 | $5,002,334,006 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.23 | $4,992,576,550 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.23 | $4,992,576,550 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.28 | $5,012,897,019 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.28 | $5,011,956,910 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.28 | $5,012,897,019 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.27 | $5,011,956,910 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.28 | $5,012,897,019 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.28 | $5,012,897,019 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.28 | $5,012,897,019 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.28 | $5,012,897,019 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.28 | $5,012,897,019 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.28 | $5,012,897,019 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.28 | $5,012,897,019 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.32 | $5,025,568,373 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.32 | $5,025,568,373 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.32 | $5,020,704,228 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.32 | $5,020,704,228 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.32 | $5,020,704,228 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.32 | $5,020,704,228 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.32 | $5,020,686,536 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.32 | $5,020,686,536 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.32 | $5,020,686,536 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.32 | $5,020,686,536 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.32 | $5,025,166,424 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.32 | $5,025,166,424 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.32 | $5,025,166,424 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.32 | $5,014,589,332 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.32 | $5,014,589,332 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.32 | $5,014,589,332 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.32 | $5,014,589,332 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.32 | $5,014,589,332 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.32 | $5,014,589,332 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.32 | $5,014,589,332 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.32 | $5,014,589,332 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.32 | $5,014,586,347 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.31 | $5,007,925,655 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.31 | $5,007,925,655 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.31 | $5,007,925,655 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.31 | $5,007,925,655 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.31 | $5,007,925,655 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.31 | $5,007,925,655 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.31 | $5,007,925,655 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.31 | $5,008,919,459 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.31 | $5,008,919,459 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.31 | $5,008,919,459 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.31 | $5,008,919,459 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.32 | $5,012,007,977 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-05 | $7.32 | $5,012,044,771 | 9 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.