Timken (TKR)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$123.16+1.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TKR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TKR — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-06
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 2, 2026, The Timken Company (the “ Company ”) entered into a Sixth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “ Credit Agreement ”) with certain subsidiaries of the Company from time to time party thereto, as designated borrowers, Bank of America, N.A. and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as Co-Administrative Agents, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as Paying Agent for the Non-EEA Agented Borrowers , J.P. Morgan SE, as Paying Agent for the EEA Agented B…
Why it matters: Good results from this acquisition would prove Timken's growth plan works and improve their market position.
Supportive ifRevenue from Bijur Delimon contributes at least $20 million in Q3.
Worry ifBijur Delimon does not add much to Q3 revenue.
Why it matters: A drop in net income margin may mean less profit. This raises worries about costs and pricing.
Worry ifNet income margin reported below 2.3% for any quarter in 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income margin reported above 2.3% for any quarter in 2026.
Why it matters: The new COO may help improve operations. This could increase profit margins.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin goes over 19% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 18.8% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Cash flow trends will show if operations are getting better.
Watch forCash from operations exceeds $50 million in Q2 2026.
Also watch forCash from operations drops below $39.3 million in Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $305 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,805 loss on $10,000 · 18.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows Timken is working well and is financially strong. This helps their plan for using money wisely.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $107.1 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations drops below $100 million in Q3.
Why it matters: If EPS meets or exceeds this level, it shows management believes in growth and profits.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS for Q2 reported at or above $1.67.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q2 reported below $1.50.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks show management's trust in the company's worth.
Supportive ifShare buybacks of over $50 million are announced for 2026.
Worry ifNo announcements for share buybacks or cuts in planned buybacks.
Why it matters: Trends in operating income show if cost management is working. This is key for profit.
Supportive ifOperating income is over $180 million in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $160 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Trends in the sector can affect Timken's growth and profits.
Worry ifSector growth is speeding up above 6% each year.
Less concerning ifSector growth is slowing down below 6% each year.
Why it matters: Net income over $100M shows that Timken's plans are working. It means they are managing costs well.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 exceeds $100M.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 is below $90M.
Why it matters: Updates on this deal will show how Timken is growing its market and expanding.
Supportive ifTimken combines Bijur Delimon well. It sees revenue from this in six months.
Worry ifTimken has issues with Bijur Delimon. This hurts its growth goals.
Why it matters: If adjusted EPS drops below this range, it signals weaker profit growth. This could raise concerns about the company's ability to sustain margins.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS reported below $6.05 for the full year 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS reported above $6.35 for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show management believes in the company's worth and future.
Supportive ifTimken repurchases more than 200,000 shares in the next quarter.
Worry ifShare repurchase activity goes down or stays the same.
Why it matters: If a key executive leaves, it could change Timken's plans. Watching this can reveal risks.
Worry ifNo negative impact on revenue or margins in the next two quarters.
Less concerning ifIf revenue or margins drop a lot after the executive leaves, it is a warning.
Why it matters: If revenue growth is low, it may show weak demand or problems. This can hurt performance.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth reported below 5.5% for 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue growth reported above 5.5% for 2026.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in demand and challenge the growth outlook.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 5.5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 5.5% year over year.
Why it matters: A decline could show problems with making money and increasing profit margins.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS in Q3 falls below $1.83.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS in Q3 meets or exceeds $1.83.
Why it matters: Higher margins mean better cost control and smart pricing.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin in Q3 is over 19.6%.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin in Q3 is below 19.6%.
Why it matters: Details about this sale could affect financial health and focus on main work.
Watch forThey announced the successful sale of the belts business.
Also watch forThere may be a delay or cancellation of the sale plan.