Timken (TKR)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$99.94-6.27%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TKR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TKR — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-06
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 2, 2026, The Timken Company (the “ Company ”) entered into a Sixth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “ Credit Agreement ”) with certain subsidiaries of the Company from time to time party thereto, as designated borrowers, Bank of America, N.A. and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as Co-Administrative Agents, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as Paying Agent for the Non-EEA Agented Borrowers , J.P. Morgan SE, as Paying Agent for the EEA Agented B…
Why it matters: Timken cited the planned sale as part of its effort to improve margins. The Q2 impairment charge was tied to the expected sale.
Supportive ifTimken announces that the belts business sale has closed and reports no new delay.
Worry ifTimken reports that the sale is canceled, delayed, or still pending in its next results release.
Why it matters: Engineered Bearings volumes were flat in Q1, then rose in Q2. Another rise would show demand is gaining ground.
Supportive ifQ3 Engineered Bearings volume is higher than a year ago. Segment sales grow at least 3.8%, matching Q2's reported growth.
Worry ifQ3 Engineered Bearings volume is flat or lower year over year, or segment sales growth falls below 3.8%.
Why it matters: Timken raised its 2026 adjusted EPS range after strong first-half results. Q3 results will show if earnings support that range.
Watch forOn November 4, Timken keeps or raises its $6.05-$6.35 adjusted EPS range. Q3 adjusted EPS is at least as high as in the prior-year quarter.
Also watch forOn November 4, Timken cuts its $6.05-$6.35 adjusted EPS range, or Q3 adjusted EPS is below the prior-year quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$105 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $320 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,123 loss on $10,000 · 31.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.