Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.13-6.80%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TLF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -37.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 14 industry peers
TLF — Chair transition
Dated 2026-06-10
Chairman of the Board of Directors — John Gehre: Appointment of John Gehre as the Chairman of the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: Pricing changes lifted gross margin to 61% in Q1. A lower margin could erase some of the sales gains.
Watch forThe Nov. 9 results show gross margin at or above 61%.
Also watch forThe Nov. 9 results show gross margin below 61%.
Why it matters: TLF flagged weak consumer spending as a business risk. Retail sales data due Nov. 17 may show whether that risk is growing.
Worry ifThe Nov. 17 retail sales report shows a month-over-month decline.
Less concerning ifThe Nov. 17 report shows month-over-month retail sales growth.
Why it matters: Sales growth is a stated management focus. Lower sales could signal weaker demand at its stores.
Watch forThe Nov. 9 results report revenue above $19.65 million, the 2026-Q1 level.
Also watch forThe Nov. 9 results report revenue below $19.65 million.
Why it matters: Costs rose 11.2% in Q1, faster than sales rose 3.2%. More such growth could squeeze operating profit.
Worry ifIn the Nov. 9 results, operating costs rise faster year over year than revenue, and operating income falls below $543,000.
Less concerning ifOperating costs rise more slowly than revenue. Operating income stays at or above $543,000.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$84 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $268 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,071 loss on $10,000 · 20.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.