Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.62+0.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TLF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 45 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TLF — Chair transition
Dated 2026-06-10
Chairman of the Board of Directors — John Gehre: Appointment of John Gehre as the Chairman of the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: Negative operating income means a setback in profit goals. This could worry investors.
Worry ifOperating income was below $0 in Q2.
Less concerning ifOperating income is positive. This helps the goal of making profits again.
Why it matters: Negative revenue growth means sales are slowing down. This could hurt future profits.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth prints below 0%, indicating a contraction in sales.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth is still positive. This shows sales are still going strong.
Why it matters: Changes in how much people spend can affect Tandy's sales and profits.
Watch forConsumer spending trends improve after the CPI report on August 12.
Also watch forConsumer spending trends worsen after the CPI report on August 12.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means the company is getting closer to making money. This is very important.
Supportive ifOperating income is over $0.5 million in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income is below $0.4 million in Q2.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$84 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $237 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,645 loss on $10,000 · 16.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Sales growth over 3.2% shows strong demand and good sales efforts.
Supportive ifQuarterly sales growth exceeds 3.2% YoY in the next quarter.
Worry ifQuarterly sales growth falls below 3.2% YoY in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A decrease in inventory would show better management of stock and demand.
Supportive ifInventory levels drop below $33.7 million in Q2.
Worry ifInventory levels rise above $33.7 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Managing operating expenses is key for better profits. Rising costs can hurt profits.
Worry ifOperating expenses were less than $11.6 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses were more than $11.6 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would show Tandy Leather is on track with its sales goals. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 4% compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is 4% or lower compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Higher gross margins would show that management is working to make more money.
Supportive ifGross margins exceed 62% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifGross margins remain at or below 61% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher operating expenses could hurt profits. It may show management is having cost issues.
Worry ifOperating costs were above $12 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses stay at or below $11.6 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Lower cash reserves could mean money problems. This may affect future investments or dividends.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents drop below $9 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCash and cash equivalents remain above $10 million in Q2 2026.