Talen Energy (TLN)
NASDAQUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$326.78-8.54%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TLN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 26.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 52.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 0 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TLN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 3, 2026, Talen Energy Corporation (“Talen”) announced via press release its third quarter 2026 financial and operating results. A copy of the earnings release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this “Report”). The information provided under this
Why it matters: Talen raised its 2026 profit and cash flow ranges after Q2. Q3 results will show if it stays on that path.
Watch forQ3 results keep Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow on pace for at least $2.025B and $1.2B for 2026.
Also watch forTalen cuts 2026 guidance below $2.025B in Adjusted EBITDA or $1.2B in free cash flow.
Why it matters: A signed deal would turn land and contracting options into a named customer commitment. No deal would leave the pipeline unproven.
Supportive ifTalen names a data center customer and reports a signed, long-term power contract. The contract is tied to its development pipeline.
Worry ifA later company update says no data center deal was signed from the roughly 4 GW pipeline.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$191 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $628 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,560 loss on $10,000 · 35.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.