TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
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Put TMDX beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Health Care Equipment: fringe margins under pressure (3q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 26% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks among the strongest in its industry on quality — around the top 14%.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 41% growth a year, above the roughly 23% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 59% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskTMDX's growth relies on maintaining strong revenue momentum amid a challenging market. Revenue grew 21% year over year, but the latest quarter missed expectations. It trades at 62× P/E versus a peer median of 28×, indicating that the market prices in more growth than is forecast. The valuation appears stretched, with expectations looking full. A specific risk is management's recent failure to meet commitments, which could undermine credibility. Peer multiples imply a price about 41% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis). Our read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. TMDX is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 12 analysts currently covering TMDX (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 6 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for TMDX in the last 4 months.
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Compare TMDX with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMDX Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Health Care Equipment — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put TMDX next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Price target cut indicates market concerns about growth.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $89.98
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $89.98.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Expand revenue growth
Earnings miss acknowledged, but growth narrative remains strong.