Reading TNC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TNC free→Reading TNC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TNC free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with TNC trading below typical levels compared to its peers. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. If TNC cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $86.88. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $87 TNC trades at 24× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median. Our $88 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.11x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.56 → $1.40 (-10.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$108.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$258.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,770.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results give clues about financial health and progress.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings beat what analysts expected. This shows strong financial performance.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings miss expectations again. This shows ongoing struggles.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TNC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and Exhibit 99 shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TNC Tennant Company | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on stabilizing and optimizing the ERP system to improve operational efficiency.
Drive revenue growth through pricing realization and strong demand momentum.
Improve cash flow from operations through better working capital management.
Focus on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows market demand and operational success. It’s crucial for future plans.
Confirms:Q2 revenue exceeds $300M, showing growth from $297.9M in Q1.
Disproves:Q2 revenue falls below $297.9M.
Why it matters: Strong order growth indicates healthy demand and supports revenue growth goals for 2026.
Confirms:Q2 orders growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 orders growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Cash flow is key for operations. A recovery means better management of working capital.
Confirms:Q2 cash flow from operations turns positive, exceeding $0.
Disproves:Q2 cash flow from operations remains negative.
Why it matters: A better EBITDA margin means more efficiency. It also shows recovery from ERP problems.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margin reaches 12% or higher in Q2.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin stays below 10% in Q2.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is key for Tennant's financial health. It shows cost management progress.
Confirms:Q2 operating income increases from $4.9M in Q1 to above $10M.
Disproves:Q2 operating income is still below $4.9M.
Why it matters: Positive net income shows recovery from recent problems. This helps build investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 net income turns positive after a loss in Q1.
Disproves:Q2 net income remains negative.