Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$77.62+2.94%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TNL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TNL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-22
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information set forth in
Why it matters: Q3 Gross VOI sales rose 6%, with tours up 7%. Sales above the new range would extend that growth.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 Gross VOI sales are reported above $2.675 billion.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 Gross VOI sales are reported below $2.625 billion.
Why it matters: The 17-resort plan aims to save costs, but lost sales and fees may offset those savings. The net result matters.
Supportive ifManagement reports that the resort plan adds to net EBITDA. Vacation Ownership EBITDA still grows year over year.
Worry ifManagement reports that lost resort sales and fees exceed the savings. Or Vacation Ownership EBITDA falls year over year.
Why it matters: Cash from operations fell year over year through September, while TNL returned $364 million to owners. A further decline could strain cash returns.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 cash from operations is below $388 million, the amount reported for the first nine months.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 cash from operations exceeds the prior-year full-year total. This reverses the nine-month decline.
Why it matters: This segment's revenue fell 11% in Q3. More declines would add pressure while Vacation Ownership grows.
Worry ifTravel and Membership revenue falls year over year for another quarter, after Q3's 11% decline.
Less concerning ifTravel and Membership revenue is flat or higher year over year in the next reported quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$116 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $324 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,162 loss on $10,000 · 21.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The sector input says consumer spending is weak, while TNL says travel demand remains healthy. Retail sales data can test that contrast.
Watch forThe November 17, 2026 retail sales report shows growth from the prior month.
Also watch forThe November 17, 2026 retail sales report shows a decline from the prior month.