Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$66.33-0.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TNL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -53.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 55.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
TNL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-22
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information set forth in
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows better control of costs and revenue. This is key for long-term profits.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Worry ifOperating income goes down or stays the same year over year.
Why it matters: The buyback shows that the company is confident in its finances. Details will show if management is acting on this.
Supportive ifManagement shares details about how much and when the buyback will happen.
Worry ifNo new announcements or delays in the buyback process.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show management believes in the company's value. This helps shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company buys back over $100 million in shares next quarter.
Worry ifShare buybacks drop below $50 million next quarter.
Why it matters: This guidance shows management's confidence in continued growth. A miss could signal trouble.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA meets or exceeds $285 million.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $275 million.
Why it matters: This range indicates the health of the vacation ownership business. Falling short could raise concerns.
Supportive ifGross VOI sales hit or exceed $740 million.
Worry ifGross VOI sales drop below $700 million.
Why it matters: Ongoing buybacks signal management's commitment to returning value. A slowdown could raise questions.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $88 million in Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $50 million in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$132 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $314 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,106 loss on $10,000 · 21.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.