Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
TENON MEDICAL INC (TNON)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.64-14.14%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TNON yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Secure additional financing of at least $4.3 million | A supporting condition in TENON MEDICAL INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.3 million capital raised. | Improving | Fails to secure additional financing to support growth | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, early-stage commercial growth story, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: revenue, margins, training activity, and surgical case volume have improved, but the company remains loss-making and recent results trail its industry cohort.
The snapshot provides no valuation multiples or direct evidence of market expectations, so whether TNON is cheap or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. The key expectations gap is whether rapid revenue growth can develop into better financial results without repeated capital raises.
Near-term execution is mixed: revenue rose from $0.6 million to $1.3 million year over year, gross margin improved from 43% to 64%, and training activity expanded, while operating expenses also rose. Management has reaffirmed guidance, but the next-quarter miss risk is elevated after consecutive misses; further equity funding may support expansion but also adds capital-allocation risk.
The multi-year view depends on sustained revenue growth, continued margin improvement, and commercial expansion translating into stronger financial performance. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while continued strong results from healthcare sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
TNON has encouraging commercial progress, but losses, volatile management, ongoing funding needs, and elevated near-term execution risk keep the 1-3 year thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company aims to meet Nasdaq listing rules. |
| Recovered |
| Failure to meet Nasdaq listing requirements |
Compliance regained vs target Company regained Nasdaq minimum bid price compliance in August 2026, resolving the listing requirement issue. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near $1.47 million quarterly | A primary condition in TENON MEDICAL INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.47 million quarterly revenue. | Broken | quarterly revenue falls below $1.38 million | Revenue: $1.279M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.47 million quarterly revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 20261,279,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.60 → $-4.87 · observed estimates
$0.01B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-21.18 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.60 | $9,711,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-12.02 | $9,498,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-12.02 | $9,498,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-12.02 | $9,498,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-12.02 | $9,498,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-6.54 | $7,390,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-4.87 | $8,868,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-4.87 | $8,868,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-4.87 | $8,868,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-4.87 | $8,868,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-4.87 | $8,868,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-4.87 | $8,868,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-4.87 | $8,868,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-4.87 | $8,868,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-4.87 | $8,868,500 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.