TON Strategy Co (TONX)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.90+1.40%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TONX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -38.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -60.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 296 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers
TONX — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement On
Dated 2026-08-10
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement On August 10, 2026, the Company notified Kingsway Capital Partners Limited (“Kingsway”) that the Company has terminated the Advisory Services Agreement between the Company and Kingsway dated August 7, 2025 (the “Agreement”). Pursuant to the terms of the Agreement, the Company agreed to pay an annual advisory fee equal to 2.0% of the Company’s market capitalization (calculated based upon the Company’s equity ownership on a fully diluted, as conver…
Why it matters: Management said the wind-down would remove about $4.0 million in yearly cash costs. Lower costs would show the plan is taking effect.
Supportive ifQ3 cash operating costs fall by about $1.0 million from the Q2 run rate, with no new legacy costs reported.
Worry ifQ3 cash operating costs do not fall from the Q2 level, or the company reports new costs from past operations.
Why it matters: Catchain 2.0 sped up block production and lifted staking rewards. A yield drop would weaken the link between the upgrade and treasury income.
Watch forThe company reports gross staking yield near or above Q2's 17% annualized rate. It also cites ongoing TON network use or upgrades.
Also watch forThe company reports a gross staking yield below Q2's 17% annualized rate. It also reports fewer than Q2's 9.4 million Gram units earned.
Why it matters: Q2 staking revenue rose to $15.0 million as Gram earned rose to 9.4 million. A Q3 drop would test whether that gain lasts.
Watch forQ3 staking revenue tops $15.0 million and Gram earned tops 9.4 million.
Also watch forQ3 staking revenue falls below $15.0 million or Gram earned falls below 9.4 million.
Why it matters: The company held 230.5 million Gram and $29.0 million in cash at Q2 end. Changes show how treasury growth affects cash.
Watch forQ3 Gram holdings rise above 230.5 million units, while cash and restricted cash stay at or above $29.0 million.
Also watch forQ3 Gram holdings fall below 230.5 million units, or cash and restricted cash fall below $29.0 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$395 on $10,000 · ±3.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $882 loss on $10,000 · 8.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,000 loss on $10,000 · 50.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.