TUTOR PERINI CORPORATION (TPC)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$88.21+1.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TPC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -32.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 47.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TPC — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-07-06
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant . The information set forth under
Why it matters: If the industrial sector grows again, it could help Tutor Perini's results. This could make investors feel better.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to 5% or more.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays below 5% or keeps slowing down.
Why it matters: The raised guidance shows strong performance and investor trust.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Adjusted EPS guidance remains in the range of $5.15 to $5.45.
Worry ifManagement lowers the Adjusted EPS guidance from the current range.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is key for stability and future growth. It shows effective management.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities goes over $200M in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash from operating activities is still below $146.9M.
Why it matters: A good dividend payment shows financial strength and a promise to return money.
Supportive ifDividend payment of $0.09 per share is made on the scheduled date.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is late or not happening.
Why it matters: A successful buyback can raise share value. It shows management believes in the company.
Supportive ifThe share price increases post-announcement of the buyback.
Worry ifThe share price declines despite the buyback announcement.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the industrials sector. This would help TUTOR PERINI's performance as it operates within this space.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the industrials sector returns to above 7%.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth in the industrials sector stays below 5%.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company meets its adjusted EPS guidance. This can impact investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 adjusted EPS reported at or above the guided range of $4.90 to $5.30.
Worry ifQ2 2026 adjusted EPS reported below $4.90.
Why it matters: Affirming EPS guidance shows confidence in earnings despite recent revenue decline. This can impact investor trust.
Supportive ifManagement says EPS guidance will not change in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement revises EPS guidance down from the current range.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends shows strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement announces a dividend increase from $0.06 per share in the next quarter.
Worry ifManagement cuts the dividend from $0.06 per share in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New project awards show demand and growth potential for Tutor Perini.
Supportive ifThey announced new project awards worth over $500 million in total.
Worry ifNo major new project awards announced. This may show weaker demand.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports ongoing operations and investment in new projects.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow for Q3 exceeds $150 million, continuing the growth trend.
Worry ifOperating cash flow falls below $150 million. This shows possible problems with operations.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows support for shareholders. This can help investor confidence.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend per share of $0.06 in the next quarter.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend per share below $0.06.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future revenue and project chances.
Supportive ifBacklog increases to over $20 billion due to new project awards.
Worry ifBacklog drops or does not grow much from $19.9 billion.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps with project work and financial health.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow remains above $300 million for the second half of 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flow drops below $250 million in the second half of 2026.
Why it matters: Ongoing buybacks show trust in financial health and a commitment to return money.
Supportive ifThe company announces more share buybacks under the $200 million program.
Worry ifNo new share buybacks are announced after the first program.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$167 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $434 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,932 loss on $10,000 · 29.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.