TUTOR PERINI CORPORATION (TPC)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$81.85-1.54%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TPC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -31.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 12.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TPC — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-13
Director — Sidney Feltenstein: A board designee resigned due to a shareholder's ownership falling below a contractual threshold, resulting in a board size reduction rather than a replacement.
Why it matters: New awards must keep pace with project work for backlog to stay near its record level. Management cited over $200 billion in possible bids.
Watch forA later report shows backlog at or above $19.9 billion, with new awards offsetting work completed.
Also watch forA later report shows backlog below $19.9 billion as awards fail to offset work completed.
Why it matters: The Board raised the quarterly dividend by 50%. Payment at the new rate would confirm this capital return step is in effect.
Supportive ifThe company pays $0.09 per share on September 3, 2026, to holders of record on August 19.
Worry ifThe company cuts its dividend, delays payment, or does not pay the declared $0.09 per share.
Why it matters: Management cited more funding for this New York project as a key source of future backlog. A delay could weaken that support.
Watch forA later backlog update shows new funding for Midtown Bus Terminal. This adds to the $19.9 billion reported in June.
Also watch forA later update shows no new funding. Or it says expected second-half funding was delayed or cut.
Why it matters: The November 4 report can show whether strong first-half results carry into the second half. Management raised its full-year target in August.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EPS and updated full-year guidance keep the company on pace to reach at least $5.15 for 2026.
Also watch forManagement cuts its 2026 adjusted EPS range below $5.15, or Q3 results put the range at risk.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$136 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $449 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,932 loss on $10,000 · 29.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow came from project work and collections. A sharp drop would weaken evidence that reported earnings turn into cash.
Watch forFull-year 2026 operating cash flow exceeds the $334.1 million reported for the first half.
Also watch forFull-year operating cash flow is $334.1 million or less, showing no second-half cash growth.