TechPrecision Corp (TPCS)
NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.80+4.69%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TPCS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TPCS — credit agreement
Dated 2026-05-19
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement As previously disclosed, on August 25, 2021, Ranor, Inc. (“ Ranor ”), a wholly owned subsidiary of TechPrecision Corporation (the “ Company ”), along with certain affiliates of the Company (together with Ranor, the “ Borrowers ”), entered into that certain Amended and Restated Loan Agreement (as amended from time to time, the “ Amended and Restated Loan Agreement ”) with Beacon Bank & Trust, successor by merger to Berkshire Bank (“ Beacon ”) under wh…
Why it matters: Completing backlog deliveries helps revenue grow. It shows how well the company works.
Watch forBacklog delivery is at least 75% complete for Q1 2027.
Also watch forBacklog delivery is below 75% complete for Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Reaching this revenue target shows good growth strategies. It shows the company can grow.
Supportive ifConsolidated revenue for fiscal 2027 is $35M or more.
Worry ifConsolidated revenue for fiscal 2027 is less than $35M.
Why it matters: Delivering backlog is key for revenue growth. It shows how well the company operates.
Supportive ifManagement will deliver at least 30% of the backlog in the next quarter.
Worry ifBacklog delivery falls below 10% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Management expects better gross margins as they deliver backlog. This shows they are doing well.
Supportive ifGross margin was over 27% when delivering the backlog.
Worry ifGross margin was under 27% when delivering the backlog.
Why it matters: Surpassing this growth target shows strong demand and success in operations.
Supportive ifRevenue growth exceeds 10% in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 10% in upcoming reports.
Why it matters: Better gross margins mean good cost control. This can lead to making more money.
Supportive ifGross margin improves beyond 15% in the next quarter.
Worry ifGross margin declines or stays below 15% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A growing backlog signals strong customer demand and supports revenue growth plans.
Supportive ifThe funded backlog is now over $52.7 million. This was reported in Q2 earnings.
Worry ifFunded backlog decreases or stays flat below $52.7 million.
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue growth target shows the company is on track for fiscal 2027 goals. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth of at least 10% compared to the same quarter last year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth speeds up, it could help TechPrecision do better.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up again, which helps the overall market.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down, showing ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Better gross margins show improved cost management. This means more money for the company.
Supportive ifGross margin expands beyond 300 basis points in upcoming quarters.
Worry ifGross margin fails to improve or declines from current levels.
Why it matters: Meeting the EBITDA target means the company is making more money.
Supportive ifEBITDA grows to at least $3.0 million as projected for fiscal 2027.
Worry ifEBITDA growth falls short of $3.0 million.
Why it matters: Reaching this revenue target shows the company is doing well with its growth plans.
Supportive ifRevenue reaches at least $35 million as projected for fiscal 2027.
Worry ifRevenue fails to meet the $35 million target.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$151 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $500 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,785 loss on $10,000 · 47.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.