TechPrecision Corp (TPCS)
NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.31-0.56%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TPCS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
TPCS — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-28
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement As previously disclosed, on August 25, 2021, Ranor, Inc. (“ Ranor ”), a wholly owned subsidiary of TechPrecision Corporation (the “ Company ”), along with certain affiliates of the Company (together with Ranor, the “ Borrowers ”), entered into that certain Amended and Restated Loan Agreement (as amended from time to time, the “ Amended and Restated Loan Agreement ”) with Beacon Bank & Trust, successor by merger to Berkshire Bank (“ Beacon ”) under wh…
Why it matters: The target calls for a large rise in earnings from operations. First-quarter EBITDA was $651,000.
Supportive ifManagement keeps its $3.0M-$4.0M FY 2027 EBITDA range, and reported results stay on pace for it.
Worry ifManagement lowers the FY 2027 EBITDA range below $3.0M, or results fall behind that pace.
Why it matters: Stadco revenue rose 22%, while its costs stayed nearly flat. Continued progress would support the project mix plan.
Supportive ifA later report shows Stadco losses lower than the prior-year quarter as revenue grows.
Worry ifStadco losses widen from the prior-year quarter, or costs rise faster than revenue.
Why it matters: This tests the company’s double-digit growth plan. First-quarter revenue rose 23% year over year.
Supportive ifAt the next earnings reports, revenue stays on pace for $35M-$37M in FY 2027.
Worry ifManagement cuts its FY 2027 revenue range below $35M, or results fall behind that pace.
Why it matters: Management links better margins to its customer and project mix. The funded backlog was $52.7M at June 30, 2026.
Supportive ifReported gross margin rises from the FY 2026 level as the company ships its funded backlog.
Worry ifGross margin falls below the FY 2026 level in later reports, or management drops its goal to improve margins.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$121 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $477 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,530 loss on $10,000 · 45.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company said covenant violations forced it to list all debt as current. Debt was $5.0M and cash was $0.3M at June 30.
Worry ifA new filing says the covenant issue remains, or states that debt is still due now because of violations.
Less concerning ifA filing states the covenant issue is fixed and debt is no longer classified as current for that reason.