Reading TPET? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TPET free→
TRIO PETROLEUM CORP (TPET)
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$0.30+5.44%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year, and risk is high. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, TPET is below typical. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- AMEX
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas E&p
- Market cap
- $12.70M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2022-09-12
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primary—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $0.29, TPET's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 6× p/s (3.1× the 2× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $0.09 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
5.7x
peer 1.8x · own history —
Premium
3.1x peer
Growth the price needs
213%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$0.09
range $0.09 – $0.09
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premiumOptionality our model can't price
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
no read12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 213% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated weak grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
8th pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.61x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatile22 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Energy names rated volatile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=252).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in mature, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme shale/unconventional.headwind-21.8%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weakProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
What management is focused on
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$539.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,282.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,528.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'None' to 'cautious'.
As of June 16, 2026, the signal label changed to "cautious." Risk fell. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, and earnings quality is characterized as loss-making. Management is noted as volatile, while recent financial performance is described as weak.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TPET yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 3% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting TPET and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit TPET and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping TPET and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits TPET and other Energy names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
- If TPET misses again next quarter like this past one (a big miss of -40% on the 2023-01-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0512d agoItem 5.02
Compensation and equity awards were granted to senior executives.
Executive changepositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.