Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. (TPH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$46.95-0.04%
Close 2026-05-13 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TPH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TPH — officer change
Dated 2026-05-14
Director — Steven J. Gilbert, Lawrence B. Burrows, R. Kent Grahl, Vicki D. McWilliams, Constance B. Moore: Directors resigned as part of a merger agreement.
Why it matters: Changes in backlog show future money and demand for homes. A drop may mean a weak market.
Worry ifBacklog units decrease further from 1,360 homes, or dollar value drops below $989 million.
Less concerning ifIf backlog units go up or the dollar value exceeds $1 billion, demand is strong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Tri Pointe is performing post-merger. It will reflect the impact of the merger on financial health.
Watch forEarnings report shows a significant increase in home sales or net income compared to Q1 2026.
Also watch forEarnings report reveals a further decline in home sales or net income compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Changes to security holder rights can affect how investors feel and where they put their money.
Watch forTPH shares good terms for security holders in the merger changes.
Also watch forInvestors are unhappy with changes to their rights.
Why it matters: The cancellation rate affects net new orders and overall sales health. A rise could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifCancellation rate rises above 9% in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCancellation rate drops below 9% in Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$11 on $10,000 · ±0.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $229 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,747 loss on $10,000 · 17.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The merger's completion will mark a significant shift in Tri Pointe Homes' operations and strategy. It could enhance growth and market presence.
Supportive ifThe merger is completed and announced in a press release, confirming all conditions are met.
Worry ifThe merger may not close on time. It might face big regulatory problems.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how the merger and market affect Tri Pointe's performance.
Watch forEarnings report shows net income over $6.8 million. This means recovery.
Also watch forEarnings report shows net income below $6.8 million. This means further decline.
Why it matters: The drop in revenue after the merger shows a change is happening. Signs of recovery mean there could be stability and growth.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue is over $600M. This shows a recovery from the drop last quarter.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is still below $521.4M. This shows ongoing weakness after the merger.
Why it matters: Backlog and delivery numbers show how much people want the product. This impacts future sales.
Worry ifBacklog units drop more or home deliveries fall below 700 homes next quarter.
Less concerning ifBacklog units stay steady or home deliveries go above 800 homes next quarter.
Why it matters: Home sales revenue trends will show the company's market health after the merger.
Watch forHome sales revenue increases from $506.5 million in Q1 2026.
Also watch forHome sales revenue decreases from $506.5 million in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Changes to rights can affect shareholder value and trust. This matters for capital use.
Worry ifA new announcement will give rights that help security holders.
Less concerning ifThere are reports of more negative changes to security holders' rights.
Why it matters: Stockholder approval is crucial for the merger to proceed. It reflects confidence in the deal.
Supportive ifStockholders must approve the merger with a majority vote before the deadline.
Worry ifIf stockholder approval does not happen or is delayed, the merger may not complete.
Why it matters: A big drop in revenue would show problems in the housing market. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ2 home sales revenue drops year over year worse than -25%.
Less concerning ifHome sales revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in backlog show demand and future money-making chances. A big drop may mean market problems.
Worry ifBacklog units decrease to below 1,360 homes by the end of Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifBacklog units increase or stabilize above 1,360 homes by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More cancellations could show buyers are unsure. This would affect future sales and profits.
Worry ifCancellation rate is over 10%.
Less concerning ifCancellation rate stays at or below 9%.
Why it matters: A drop in new home orders would indicate weakening demand and could impact future revenue.
Worry ifNet new home orders fall below 1,200 units.
Less concerning ifNet new home orders remain above 1,200 units.
Why it matters: More active selling communities mean successful growth. This shows a bigger market presence.
Supportive ifActive selling communities increase to over 170 by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifActive selling communities drop or stay below 150.
Why it matters: SG&A expenses show how well management controls costs. This is important during market pressures.
Watch forSG&A expenses as a percentage of home sales revenue decrease to below 15%.
Also watch forSG&A expenses as a percentage of home sales revenue increase above 20%.